Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kict 220331
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
931 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019
issued at 931 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019
Scattered showers continue to move across south central and
southeast Kansas this evening. Meanwhile, scattered mixed wintry
precip continues to evolve northeastward across central Kansas.
Point soundings showed a bit of weak elevated instability with
steeper lapse rates above 700 mb, owing to convective nature of
precip and production of sleet at times along/north of Highway
50. This should continue through at least midnight though
temperatures remaining at or just above freezing across central
Kansas. However, as temperatures at the surface and aloft cool
toward dawn, would expect to see changeover to mainly snow closer
to I-70 corridor. Better chance for some sleet and perhaps some
snow to mix in further south across portions of the Wichita Metro
as well late tonight. A light accumulation of snow and sleet is
possible across central Kansas before dawn, generally one-half
inch or less per the going forecast.
Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 327 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019
1) light wintry precipitation potential tonight through Friday early
2) colder Friday, but quick warm-up this weekend.
3) potentially unsettled weather early-mid next week.
4) possibly another warm-up by Thanksgiving.
Shortwave energy currently approaching from the Desert Southwest
region will spread a variety of precipitation across the forecast
area tonight through Friday. Southeast Kansas will see the greatest
potential for meaningful moisture tonight, mainly in the form of
rain, closest to deep 800-600mb moisture transport and weak elevated
instability. Cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder across far
southern/southeast Kansas before midnight as well. Southeast Kansas rainfall
amounts may approach one-quarter inch.
Further northwest where the thermal column is cooler, an off-and-on
light wintry mix is likely, probably in the form of light
sleet/light snow mixture. It should come in two rounds, the first of
which should be this evening after dark through about 3am across
mainly central and north-central Kansas. Some light sleet/snow
accumulations are possible, but probably less than one-half inch.
The 2nd and somewhat more meaningful round of wintry precipitation
is expected Friday morning through early afternoon across mainly
central and north-central Kansas, as deformation zone precipitation
spins northeast associated with the ejecting shortwave. Thermal
profiles will likely cool enough for all snow with this 2nd round.
While there remains some uncertainty, thinking snow/sleet amounts up
to around one inch are possible generally north of Hutchinson to
Marion. May see locally higher amounts approach two inches given the
potential for weak instability as indicated by model cross sections.
Further south closer to the Kansas Turnpike and the Flint Hills, a
period of light snow/light sleet mixture is probable later tonight
into Friday morning, including the morning commute. Forcing here
should be a bit weaker, so overall amounts should remain less than
one-half inch, including the Wichita Metro.
Since the overall impacts are expected to be on the low side,
decided against issuing a Winter Weather Advisory for this event.
However, evening and night shift will need to monitor observational
and model trends for possible accumulation increases, especially if
the European model (ecmwf) and some of the higher-end short-term ensembles verify.
Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 327 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019
After much colder highs Friday in the 30s for most, a quiet and
warmer weather pattern will set up across the region Saturday
through Monday. With full sunshine and a decent westerly downslope
component, thinking highs by Sunday should reach the 60s for
The potential for unsettled weather returns by Monday night or
Tuesday, as many deterministic models and associated ensemble means
dig an upper trough southeastward across the northern, western and
central conus, which will also allow colder temperatures to filter
south into the region. While there remains quite a bit of
uncertainty on this storm system's track and strength, there is the
potential for accumulating wintry precipitation and associated
adverse impacts somewhere across mid-America. Stay tuned for later
Looking out toward mid-late next week...model/ensemble consensus
supports another deep trough digging across the western conus, with
a broad ridge over the central and eastern Continental U.S.. if this pattern
verifies, it would support relatively warm and breezy weather
Thanksgiving day and Friday of next week across the forecast area,
with lower wintry precipitation potential. Stay tuned.
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 538 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019
MVFR cigs are expected to prevail over most of the area through
the forecast valid period. Scattered light to moderate rain
showers will move northeast across south central and southeast
Kansas through early tonight. This will be followed by scattered
light snows for central Kansas on Friday as an upper low moves
northeast from the southern rockies into the Central Plains.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 33 36 27 52 / 60 50 0 0
Hutchinson 30 35 25 52 / 60 60 0 0
Newton 30 34 26 51 / 60 50 0 0
Eldorado 32 35 25 51 / 60 40 0 0
Winfield-kwld 34 38 27 52 / 70 40 0 0
Russell 28 34 22 51 / 40 60 10 0
Great Bend 29 34 23 51 / 50 60 0 0
Salina 29 35 25 52 / 50 60 10 0
McPherson 30 34 24 50 / 60 60 0 0
Coffeyville 37 40 29 52 / 90 40 10 0
Chanute 34 38 26 49 / 60 40 10 0
Iola 33 37 26 49 / 50 40 10 0
Parsons-kppf 36 39 27 50 / 70 40 10 0