Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kict 162339 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
639 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

There is a persistent ridge over the central Continental U.S. With a trough
making its way onshore out west. Hurricane Humberto is north of the
Bahamas and east of the Carolinas with a northeast path. A tropical
disturbance maintains its position in the Gulf of Mexico just off
the Texas coast which will bring heavy rain to eastern Texas and
southern Louisiana. Back in Kansas, south to southwest flow has
helped keep temperatures around 90 degrees for another day. Breezy
winds provided what may be considered aid in the feels like factor.


Short term...(this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019


1)breezy on Tuesday

2)highs around 90s

3)slight chances of thunderstorms Wednesday & Thursday in central Kansas

The trough off to the west will send a wave across the northern
plains Tuesday into Wednesday which should push the axis of the
ridge further to the east. As this system strengthens, the
tightening gradient will result in an increase in the wind speeds as
highlighted for the past few days. Model soundings show momentum
Transfer to 750mb which essentially suggests that the winds at that
height in the atmosphere will be transferred down to the surface.
Those values indicate Wind Advisory criteria would be met especially
in central Kansas where sustained speeds could reach 30 to 35 mph
according to the NAM and GFS. However, there are several other
models that would keep values just shy even in central Kansas. If
you followed the soundings, advisory potential would be across
central and south central Kansas. It is likely that the next
forecast issuance would lean towards an advisory while trying to
answer the question of its southern extent. Travel on east/west
oriented roadways will be difficult with the potential speeds and

The tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico stays over eastern
Texas before gradually moving northwest which essentially could get
ingested into the flow pattern as mentioned in the previous
discussion. Current models are not showing the influence that was
previously forecast in the precipitation field for Wednesday and
Thursday in the south central and southeast portions of the state.
There are slight chances of thunderstorms in central Kansas as that
northern plains system slides east, but this will depend on how far
south the activity will actually reach. Temperatures through this
period are expected to be around 90 degrees keeping this above
normal temperature trend by about 5-8 degrees thanks to the flow

Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Challenges: precipitation chances & potential for strong to severe

A change in the pattern continues to be anticipated for the weekend
when the the trough moves eastward towards the plains. There could
be a wave out ahead of the system for Friday thus chances of showers
and thunderstorms are in the forecast. However, the values are lower
than the previous issuance. The first frontal boundary is expected
to move through on Saturday with the models in slightly better
agreement compared to yesterday. There are still some differences in
the timing, but it is closer. As the first front moves east, there
is an increase in instability and shear. Thus strong to severe
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out at this time. Another boundary
appears to move through on Sunday. Overall these days have the
highest potential for meaningful precipitation given the movement of
this system. Uncertainty remains though in the exact timing,
coverage and strength of any storms. Adjustments are guaranteed
especially in the exact chances for precipitation as they have been
the past few days. If the models trend towards even better
agreement, this will help the confidence in the expectations for the
weekend. One nice feature with the storms and front will be cooler
air. Temperatures are forecast to fall to the low to mid 80s or back
to seasonal normal this weekend. Stay tuned for changes.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side for the
next 24 hours.

Upper trough remains over the western Continental U.S. With upper ridging
stretching across the Mississippi Valley. Lee troughing will
remain in place for tonight through Tue. This will result in gusty
south winds by early Tue afternoon with gusts over 30 mph common
for areas west of I-135. Confidence is high that VFR conditions
will remain in place through this taf period.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 71 90 72 90 / 0 0 0 10
Hutchinson 71 91 73 91 / 0 0 0 10
Newton 71 89 72 89 / 0 0 0 10
Eldorado 70 89 72 89 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 71 90 71 89 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 73 93 71 93 / 10 0 10 10
Great Bend 72 91 70 91 / 10 0 10 10
Salina 73 92 74 92 / 0 0 10 20
McPherson 71 90 72 89 / 0 0 10 10
Coffeyville 70 91 70 91 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 69 91 70 90 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 69 91 70 91 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-kppf 70 90 70 90 / 0 0 0 0


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations