Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kict 180803
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
303 am CDT Fri Oct 18 2019
Short term...(today through Sunday night)
issued at 302 am CDT Fri Oct 18 2019
A Stout shortwave currently moving into the western rockies will
move rapidly across the southern rockies today. As the shortwave
moves closer, a tight pressure gradient will develop over the
central half of the forecast area for the afternoon hours. This will
lead to strong gusty south winds along the I-135 corridor this
afternoon with some wind gusts of 40-45kts as 850h winds of 45 kts
mix to the surface. Previous forecast shifts have already hoisted a
Wind Advisory for this afternoon, and this looks reasonable for the
afternoon hours. The strong south winds will lead to good downslope
conditions for the afternoon as well, which will lead Max temps
coming in almost 5 to 10 degrees above normal today. Went above the
warmest model solution for Max temps as models look a little too
cool for highs.
As the shortwave moves out into the plains, low level moisture
transport will gradually increase, initially in the mid layers, and
eventually in the lower layers by this evening, as a surface trough
moves east across the area. This increased moisture transport and
lift associated with shortwave/trough, will lead to a chance of
showers and some embedded thunderstorms this evening, initially in
central Kansas and then from west to east as the evening progresses.
Instability is very limited, for any strong or severe storms, even
with bulk shear around 45 kts, so think thunder chances will be
limited to a few rumbles of thunder at best.
Most of the showers and embedded thunder will shift rapidly east of
the forecast area overnight into early on Sat, with temps falling
back close to normal in its wake. After some lingering morning
showers in southeast KS, Sat looks like a nice day for the region as a mid
level ridge moves rapidly across the area.
Another strong shortwave will move out of the Pacific northwest late Sat
night and move across the northern rockies early on sun. This
system will deepen as it moves into the plains on Sun afternoon,
with a closed low expected to develop over the northern plains. This
will push a strong cold front/dry line across the forecast area for
Sun afternoon. Moisture return ahead of this boundary will be
rather limited, so will only go with some slight chance pops for
areas mainly east of the I-135 for Sun afternoon/evening.
Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 302 am CDT Fri Oct 18 2019
Northwest flow with brisk northwest winds will move in after the northern plains
system shifts east for Mon-Tue. This will lead to Max temps a
little below normal for both days, with low temps in the low 40s.
The northwest flow will continue to dominate the weather pattern for most
of the rest of the work week with a secondary shot of colder air
expected to push south into the area on Wed as another cold front
pushes south in the northwest flow. This will lead too temps remaining
below normal for the end of the week as well.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1157 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019
Main concern: gusty southerly winds and low level wind shear overnight.
Scattered high clouds will continue to move across the area
overnight. Low level wind shear included at all taf sites overnight due to a 50-60kt
jet over the area. Gusty southerly winds winds will continue through
most of the taf period including south winds of 25 to 30 mph with
gusts up to 45 mph across portions of south central and central Kansas
tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise quiet VFR conditions will
continue until tomorrow evening.
A northerly wind shift is expected tomorrow evening as a cold front
moves in. The front should pass through krsl, kgbd, and ksln and be
near khut at the end of the taf period. Showers and storms possible
tomorrow evening/night as the front pushes through the area, went
with rain showers at all sites except for kcnu. Near MVFR cigs will be
possible behind the front tomorrow evening.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 77 51 70 47 / 0 90 0 0
Hutchinson 78 48 70 45 / 0 70 0 0
Newton 76 49 69 46 / 0 90 0 0
Eldorado 76 51 69 47 / 0 80 0 0
Winfield-kwld 76 52 70 47 / 0 70 0 0
Russell 81 45 69 47 / 10 80 0 0
Great Bend 81 45 68 46 / 10 70 0 0
Salina 78 48 69 47 / 0 70 0 0
McPherson 77 47 69 45 / 0 70 0 0
Coffeyville 74 52 69 46 / 0 70 20 0
Chanute 74 52 69 46 / 0 90 20 0
Iola 74 52 68 45 / 0 90 20 0
Parsons-kppf 74 52 69 47 / 0 80 20 0
Wind Advisory from 11 am this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening