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fxus63 kict 191941 
afdict

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
241 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Short term...(this evening through Monday night)
issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

The upper level ridge of high pressure will remain in place across
the region through Saturday while a cold front settles southward
across the northern and into the Central Plains states. This will
result in another sultry day across the forecast area on Sat with
highs on either side of the century mark. We could see some accas
or perhaps an isolated storm or two tonight/early Saturday morning
with some wind speed convergence associated with the low level jet but
confidence remains too low to mention in the forecast at this
time.

Maintained low pops across a sliver of our central Kansas counties on
Saturday evening as a cold front approaches late in the period. A
subtle pv anomaly may help support a few storms, especially across
central Kansas but conditions become less favorable as you move
southward into south central Kansas where the airmass will likely
remain capped. Better chances for deep moist convection may arrive
across much of the area on Sunday, especially across southeast Kansas
where the airmass is progged to become quite unstable during the
afternoon & evening hours. The flow is also progged to increase
some supporting the possibility of a few severe storms through the
evening hours ahead of the frontal surge. A stable Post-frontal
regime will be ushered in for the beginning of the week with highs
only reaching the low 80s.

Long term...(tuesday through friday)
issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

We'll start the period in an unseasonably cool Continental
airmass for at least the first half of next week with dry weather
and fall-like temperatures. Values will modify as we move through
the week with more seasonable values around 90 toward the latter
portion of the work week.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

VFR continues across the area with clear conditions and gusty south-southwest
winds. Speeds will diminish by 23z-01z with some low level wind shear developing
tonight as a southwesterly low level jet increases in the 04-05z timeframe.
Similar conditions will return across the area again tomorrow.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 76 99 75 93 / 0 0 10 30
Hutchinson 77 100 72 89 / 0 10 10 30
Newton 76 97 72 90 / 0 10 10 30
Eldorado 75 96 73 92 / 0 0 10 20
Winfield-kwld 77 98 75 94 / 0 0 10 20
Russell 77 103 68 83 / 0 10 30 40
Great Bend 75 102 69 84 / 0 10 20 40
Salina 78 101 72 87 / 0 10 20 40
McPherson 76 99 72 87 / 0 10 10 30
Coffeyville 76 96 75 94 / 0 0 0 20
Chanute 76 95 75 92 / 0 0 0 20
Iola 75 95 75 92 / 0 0 10 20
Parsons-kppf 76 95 75 93 / 0 0 0 20

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
excessive heat warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for ksz032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

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