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fxus63 kict 150840 
afdict

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
240 am CST Fri Nov 15 2019

Short term...(today through Sunday night)
issued at 236 am CST Fri Nov 15 2019

A shortwave trough over the Southern Plains early this morning is
progged deepen while moving eastward into the lower Mississippi
Valley area today. This will result in rising heights/increasing
thickness across the Central Plains states supporting rising
temperatures across the area today with most locations reaching or
exceeding climate normals for mid Nov. As high pressure translates
eastward the pressure gradient will increase leading to breezy
southerly winds. Time/height cross-sections of wind/mixing layer
heights support 25-30 knot wind gusts across much of central Kansas
which was handled well in the previous forecast.

Sat...breezy southerly winds will expand eastward into south central
and southeast Kansas where the pressure gradient force will be
maximized. An approaching sfc trough axis will allow winds to relax
some across much of central Kansas. A clipper type system will drive a
cold front south across the area Sat night shifting winds to the
north, but chances for wetting rains appears low at this time.

Sun...pops were increased across mainly southeast Kansas early on sun as
a shortwave trough moves quickly eastward across the area. Temperatures
are expected to remain warm enough for precipitation to remain
all rain.

Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 236 am CST Fri Nov 15 2019

Northwest mid/upper flow is progged at the start of the period.
This will result in mild and dry weather conditions early in the
week with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s. A mid/upper trough
is progged to deepen along the California coast toward the middle
of the week while a lead shortwave trough lifts out of the
southwest and over the southern High Plains late on Wed.
Maintained low pops beginning late Wed and into the latter portion
of the week. There appears to be some agreement with another
fropa Wed night into Thu which will usher in more seasonable air
for late in the week.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

The only change from the 00z issuance was to increase sly winds to
~20kts sustained at khut, kgbd & krsl, where ~25kt gusts are now
likely by ~18z as the Front Range sfc troffing is getting a little
stronger. Similar increases may be needed at kict & ksln when the
12z & 18z editions hit the press. P6sm sky clear in all areas thru late
Fri night & likely beyond.



&&

Fire weather...
issued at 236 am CST Fri Nov 15 2019

Breezy southerly winds will return to much of the area today with
the highest speeds expected across central Kansas. Afternoon wind
gusts of 30-35 mph will combine with above normal temperatures
driving the grassland fire danger index into the very high category
across all of central and portions of south central Kansas. The
strongest winds will develop further east across much of south
central and portions of southeast Kansas on Saturday where a very high
grassland fire danger is expected to develop once again.

The grassland fire danger may become elevated once again early next
week as above normal temperature combine with breezy northwest
winds.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 59 34 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 61 34 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 59 34 58 38 / 0 0 0 0
Eldorado 57 34 58 40 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 58 34 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 64 35 62 35 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 64 34 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 61 36 61 36 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 61 34 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 55 31 58 38 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 55 30 58 39 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 55 31 58 39 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-kppf 55 31 57 39 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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