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000 
FXUS63 KICT 060510
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1110 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 228 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

A mid level wave continues to propagate out of Colorado and 
push through the Plains this evening and overnight. Lift from the
wave may combine with moisture ahead of the associated cold front
to produce a few scattered showers overnight across portions of 
southeast Kansas. As alluded to in the previous discussion, 
confidence isn't great in these showers occurring as the best 
moisture transport seems to remain a bit more southeast and into 
MO. However, went ahead and left low pops overnight which may 
combine with some weak moisture transport to support said showers.
Northerly winds in the wake of the mid level wave and front will 
be breezy as the sfc pressure gradient tightens up and traverses 
the area overnight. Cold advection will commence through the 
night bringing the low temps into the upper 20s to mid 30s across
the area by early tomorrow morning. 

Cold air advection will continue throughout the day tomorrow 
which will limit highs to the 40s area wide. Upper ridging arrives
for the weekend which will keep us dry with temps in the mid to 
upper 50s. Lee troughing will support a strengthening pressure 
gradient on Saturday bringing gusty southerly winds to much of the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

Another trough will push through the region to start the work week 
bringing a cold front across the forecast area sometime on 
Monday. Chances of precip with the frontal passage looks rather 
low at this time. The sfc pressure gradient tightens up on Monday
which will help drive the much colder air and gusty winds through
the area. Per collaboration with neighbors, nudged winds up 
Monday. The cold blast behind the front will result in 
temperatures Tuesday morning to fall into the teens and low 20s 
across the area. As upper ridging overspreads the area for the 
extended period, the area will remain cooler than normal and dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1109 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

An area of post frontal MVFR clouds will continue to move south into 
central KS late tonight as colder air moves in.  So will include 
some MVFR cigs for most locations overnight. Could even see some IFR 
cigs for the KRSL and KGBD taf sites.  

Only expect the MVFR cigs to to last until mid morning on Fri, 
before VFR conditions return, as the MVFR cigs slowly erode during 
the morning hours.   

Ketcham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

Minimal fire weather concerns from now through the weekend. 
Stronger winds on Monday may push the grassland fire danger threat
into the high and very high categories. Stay tuned as updates to 
the wind forecast are likely. Cooler temperatures on Monday will 
also help augment the fire danger threat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    35  44  28  52 /  10   0   0   0 
Hutchinson      32  43  27  52 /  10   0   0   0 
Newton          32  43  27  52 /  10   0   0   0 
ElDorado        34  43  28  52 /  10   0   0   0 
Winfield-KWLD   36  45  28  53 /  10   0   0   0 
Russell         30  42  28  54 /  10   0   0   0 
Great Bend      30  42  27  54 /  10   0   0   0 
Salina          31  42  28  53 /  10   0   0   0 
McPherson       32  42  26  52 /  10   0   0   0 
Coffeyville     38  46  28  54 /  20  10   0   0 
Chanute         36  44  28  52 /  20   0   0   0 
Iola            35  43  28  52 /  20  10   0   0 
Parsons-KPPF    37  45  29  53 /  20  10   0   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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