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000 
FXUS63 KICT 211937
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
237 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

A frontal boundary is stretched across the region for much of the 
short term.  Moisture transport for the overnight period is okay but 
not great however, forcing and high PW more than makes up for it. 
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop through afternoon 
and into the overnight period.  There is the potential for some 
isolated severe thunderstorm with this activity as well.  The main 
threat appears to be damaging wind and very heavy rain with flash 
flooding possible. The orientation of the frontal boundary tonight 
indicates the risk for flash flooding is there.  As such, this 
warrants the issuance of a Flash Flood Watch for the evening and 
overnight period. Thursday, the frontal boundary will push a little 
further south Thursday but is expected to stall around the KS/OK 
state line Thursday afternoon.  The proximity of this frontal system 
will keep the chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast 
for Thursday and Friday as well. Thursday night and Friday morning 
look to have the best chance for a repeat of widespread showers and 
thunderstorm.  Again, severe weather can't be ruled out with 
damaging winds and heavy rain with possible flash flooding.  By 
Saturday, the front will return as a warm front and push through the 
region once again.  The moisture axis will re-establish itself over 
the western half of the state and will follow the fronts progression 
to the east.  This front and moisture axis will provided the needed 
ingredients to get showers and thunderstorms going once again. Once 
again, severe weather can't be ruled out but the main threat looks 
to be damaging winds and very heavy rain.  

With all the convective activity and the frontal boundary slipping 
to the south of the region for the bulk of the short term, 
temperatures are expected to slip below normal for Thursday through 
Saturday.  Cloud cover and persistent chances for rain in the region 
will help keep the temperatures down for the next few days.  

Metzger


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

The extended range looks to remain fairly active to start at least. 
Showers and thunderstorms will develop Monday night and into Tuesday 
morning.  However, this activity is expected to be restricted to the 
Southeastern portions of the CWA as the front continues to move of 
to the east.  Behind the front, southerly winds and WAA will 
dominate.  This will allow some good clearing to occur and allow 
temperatures to rise once again.  Temperatures are expected to get 
approach normal levels for this time of year by Tuesday with above 
normal temperatures again likely for the middle and end of the next 
week.  

Metzger

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Anticipating chances for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to 
gradually increase by this evening across the region, as a strong
and deep frontal zone oozes south across Mid-America. Included
VCTS in all TAFs to cover this threat, although anticipate later
shifts will eventually need to insert TEMPO +TSRA for many sites. 


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  82  68  83 /  50  50  50  30 
Hutchinson      69  80  66  83 /  50  50  40  20 
Newton          69  80  67  82 /  60  50  50  30 
ElDorado        71  82  68  82 /  50  50  50  30 
Winfield-KWLD   72  85  68  83 /  40  40  40  30 
Russell         65  77  64  83 /  60  40  30  20 
Great Bend      67  77  64  83 /  50  40  30  10 
Salina          68  77  66  82 /  60  50  40  20 
McPherson       67  78  65  82 /  60  50  40  20 
Coffeyville     72  84  70  83 /  50  50  50  40 
Chanute         71  82  68  82 /  50  60  60  50 
Iola            71  81  68  81 /  60  60  60  50 
Parsons-KPPF    72  82  69  82 /  50  50  60  40 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM CDT this evening through Thursday 
morning for KSZ049-051>053-068>072-083-092>096-098>100.

&&

$$

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