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fxus63 kict 220753 
afdict

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
253 am CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Short term...(today through Wednesday night)
issued at 252 am CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Today-tonight:
relatively straightforward forecast as 850mb trough swings
through southeast Kansas before daybreak, which should end any threat
of precipitation in southeast Kansas. Cooler air will continue to
spill into the area through tonight.

Tuesday-wednesday:
surface high pressure moves across the area during this period.
Only minor concern is very slight potential for altocumulus
castellanus and or elevated showers/storms around daybreak
Wednesday in the vicinity of krsl and kgbd. Chances at this point
are too low to mention. A gradual warmup is expected as the return
flow develops. -Howerton

Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 252 am CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Axis of elevated moisture will be drift east Wednesday night and
Thursday morning, with a small chance of showers/storms between
0900-1500 UTC and roughly west of I-35. Probability still too low
to mention, but will need to monitored over the next few days.
Otherwise, fairly good agreement with GFS/European model (ecmwf) in long wave
pattern evolution. By the weekend, the shortwave traversing the
northern plains flattens the western ridge, setting up impressive
diffluent upper flow across the Central Plains. This would
seemingly support nocturnal storms rolling off the High Plains
over the weekend. European model (ecmwf)/GFS diverge late in the period with the
position of the surface front. The next front may just northwest
of the area by the end of this period, but there are significant
differences between the GFS/European model (ecmwf) on its location. -Howerton

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1147 PM CDT sun Jul 21 2019

A few scattered showers/thunderstorms will linger for a few more
hours across southeast Kansas. Otherwise, cold advection amidst
moist low-levels will contribute to patchy MVFR ceilings
developing overnight and persisting into Monday morning for most
areas, probably most widespread eastern and southeast Kansas.
Breezy northeast winds will prevail areawide.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 83 61 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 83 59 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 81 59 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
Eldorado 81 60 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 83 61 81 59 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 82 56 83 59 / 0 0 0 10
Great Bend 82 57 83 59 / 0 0 0 10
Salina 83 59 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 82 59 81 58 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 83 63 81 60 / 10 0 0 0
Chanute 82 62 79 59 / 10 10 0 0
Iola 81 61 79 59 / 10 10 0 0
Parsons-kppf 81 62 80 60 / 10 10 0 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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