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fxus63 kict 172337 
afdict

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
637 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Synopsis...
issued at 335 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Currently a ridge axis is positioned over the Great Lakes to the
Mississippi River valley. Hurricane Humberto continues the northeast
track into the Atlantic while recently upgraded tropical storm
Imelda hangs out near the northeast Texas coast. A trough is
situated over the West Coast with its first wave having a negative
tilt at the mid levels and making its way northeast. Kansas'
location within this flow regime means another day of temperatures
in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices were not much of a concern given
the moisture content of the air. The strengthening system off to the
west and mixing did lead to stronger southerly winds with speeds
ranging from 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 to 35 mph. On a climate
note, a warm low has been recorded so far today for Russell with a
low of 71; the previous record was 70 which occurred only last year.

&&

Short term...(this evening through Friday night)
issued at 335 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Highlights:

1)highs around 90s

2)slight chances of thunderstorms Wednesday in central Kansas

3)chances of thunderstorms Thursday night thru Friday

Challenge: precipitation chances to end the week

The trough off to the west will send the first wave northeast over
the northern plains on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms may
creep into north central and northeast Kansas on Wednesday afternoon
as this wave moves through. Otherwise mid week will be similar to
today other than lighter winds. There is potential for warm lows to
be recorded at Russell and Salina with the current forecast at or
within one degree of their current records on Wednesday. This
part of the forecast remains pretty much unchanged.

Tropical storm Imelda is anticipated to gradually move north then
get ingested into the pattern late Thursday into Friday. Given the
tropical nature of this system, an influx of moisture is a given.
Precipitable water values of 1.5-1.75 inches are anomalous for this
time of year or higher than what is typical which was highlighted
in the previous discussion. As the system off to the west moves
east and combines with the originally tropical system, showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated to develop late Thursday into
Friday with the best potential Friday afternoon in southeast
Kansas. It is possible that there could be some strong storms with
this activity. An increase in cloud cover as well as potential
precipitation will drop high temperatures closer to or at seasonal
normals in the lower 80s. Did anyone say they would like to enter
fall and have a break from this heat?

Long term...(saturday through tuesday)
issued at 335 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Highlights

1) strong to severe storms possible late Fri-sun

2) temperatures back at seasonal normals (lower 80s)

Challenges: precipitation chances & potential for strong to severe
storms

The main trough will continue its eastward progression this weekend
with frontal passage anticipated Saturday or Sunday depending on
which model fits your fancy. There is a lingering boundary according
to the GFS while the European model (ecmwf) waits until Sunday for frontal passage.
These timing differences make confidence not as high as it could be
despite the fact that there is relative consistency in the general
progression of the system. It still appears that the weekend will
have decent chances for water works with chances of precipitation
for much of the weekend. Better instability exists closer to the
front which prompts the potential for strong to severe storms
Saturday afternoon/evening. One could argue that Sunday could be in
play as well depending on the timing of the front.

Typical threats are anticipated, and flooding should be considered
as well given this airmass. Some locations in south central and
southeast Kansas received 1-3 inches about five days ago, so there
has been time to dry out especially since there was little if any
precipitation for many locations for the preceding days in
September. This will allow for more rain to sink in, but the rate is
always an important factor to determine the impacts. Plus
precipitation amounts associated with the thunderstorms are
definitely challenging. An average from model plumes show a range of
potential precipitation totals for the weekend from 1-2 inches, but
it still early in the cycle especially given the model differences in
timing to get anything too specific or have high confidence.
Chances for precipitation in themselves continue to be adjusted
with each issuance.

Lingering chances for precipitation exist into the start of next
week. Despite the Prospect of a soggy weekend, cooler air will be in
place resulting in lower temperatures. The return to seasonal normal
values in the lower 80s should stay put through the extended portion
of the forecast. There likely would not be too many complaints with
those values.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Aviation concerns are expected to remain minimal through the next
24 hours.

Water vapor imagery shows compact upper impulse lifting over the
northern rockies with upper ridging from the Ohio Valley into the
middle Mississippi Valley. This setup has left Lee troughing in
place allowing for gusty south winds. Strong winds will quickly
decrease here shortly but will pick back up by early Wed
afternoon. Confidence is high that VFR conditions will remain in
place through this taf period.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 71 91 70 88 / 0 10 0 10
Hutchinson 71 92 70 89 / 0 10 0 10
Newton 71 90 70 88 / 0 10 10 10
Eldorado 71 89 70 87 / 0 10 0 10
Winfield-kwld 70 90 69 88 / 0 10 0 10
Russell 71 94 70 91 / 10 20 10 10
Great Bend 71 93 69 89 / 10 10 10 10
Salina 73 93 71 90 / 10 20 10 10
McPherson 71 91 69 87 / 10 10 10 10
Coffeyville 70 91 70 90 / 0 10 0 10
Chanute 70 91 70 89 / 0 10 0 10
Iola 70 91 70 89 / 0 10 0 10
Parsons-kppf 70 91 70 89 / 0 10 0 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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