Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus66 khnx 192113 aaa 
afdhnx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Hanford California
144 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019



Synopsis...
continued cool weather throughout the forecast area this weekend
with gusty conditions tonight in and just below the mountain
passes of Kern County. Warming trend begins Monday as the eastern
Pacific Ridge of high pressure builds. Afternoon highs by next
Tuesday will be in the mid 80s.

&&

Discussion...
a continuation of afternoon highs that are generally between 3-5
degrees below average today, with most of the sj valley in the mid
70s as dry, northwesterly flow persists. Flow aloft is forecast
to strengthen tonight as a disturbance embedded within the upper
flow passes through. The combination of stronger upper winds,
strengthening gradients, and recent hi-res model data regarding
potentially stronger wind gusts though and just below the Kern
County passes tonight has prompted the issuance of a Wind Advisory
in the aforementioned areas. The Wind Advisory will be valid
starting at 5 PM this afternoon and will be valid through 5 am
Sunday morning. As this disturbance passes through, it will
reinforce the cool air we have had in the forecast area the last
few days, meaning that Sunday will also be a few degrees below
average regarding afternoon highs.

Eastern Pacific Ridge of high pressure is progged to build by
Monday, heralding a warming trend. Blended model guidance for
Monday is forecasting Max temperatures to generally be in the
upper 70s to around 80 degrees in the lowest elevations of the San
Joaquin Valley. The warming trend will continue into Tuesday as
the ridge persists, leading to another increase in afternoon highs
into the low to mid 80s for Tuesday. Afternoon high temperatures
in the low 80s will occur again Wednesday.

By Wednesday afternoon, the position of the ridge axis is forecast
to Orient itself in a manner that would enable somewhat stronger
north/northeasterly flow across the County Warning Area. This flow pattern would
lead to dry, northeasterly surface wind across parts of the Sierra
Nevada and Kern County mountains Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday, which could increase the fire threat. Forecast winds for
Wednesday and Thursday will continued to be reviewed as newer model
data comes in. Other than that, no precipitation is forecast to
occur throughout the forecast area in the near future.



&&



Aviation...
wind gusts up to 40 knots may occur over the Tehachapi Mountains
from 00z Sunday through 12z Sunday. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail over the central California interior during the next
24 hours.

&&

Air quality issues...
none.




&&

Certainty...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

Hnx watches/warnings/advisories...
Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 am PDT Sunday for
caz196>199.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations