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000 
FXUS66 KHNX 210927
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
227 AM PDT Mon Oct 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend is expected through the week. A downward trend in
temperatures is expected late next weekend. Dry weather will 
persist through the next seven days. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures remained below normal yesterday as strong NW flow
increased behind the trough that moved across the region 
yesterday. Areas of advection fog developed across the parts of 
the Sierra and Tehachapi foothills and even into the SJV. Dry air
has moved in and skies have cleared out. 

The EPAC ridge will begin moving into the region today with
warming temperatures over the CENCAL interior this week. Near 
normal temps are expected today. Continued increasing temperatures
are forecast through the week with Thursday and Friday being the 
warmest days. Temps will be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal on 
these days. Very dry airmass will build in over the region this
week as well, with RH values reaching critical values across Kern
county on Thursday and Friday for fire weather concerns. Offshore
flow with a strong surface high pressure center over the Great 
Basin will increase on Thursday with gusty east to northeast winds
possible over the Kern county mountain area.

A very strong inside slider storm system will bring a cold front
through the region on Sunday. Much cooler airmass will build in
over the area into monday. Overnight lows will be some of the
coldest of the Fall season so far, with lows possibly dropping
onto the low to mid 30 in the SJV. Winds will be gusty as the
front moves through as well. Unfortunately, the model guidance is
keeping this system dry. This is not a favorable storm track for 
precipitation but more for cold air and windy conditions. High 
temperatures on Monday are forecast to be 5 to 10 degrees below 
normal. Confidence is medium with this event. the deterministic 
GFS and ECM are advertising different storm tracks. the ensembles 
are more of a broad brush with the change in pattern early next 
week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at MCE, MER, FAT, VIS, and BFL through
at least the next 24 hours. 

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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