Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus66 khnx 171225
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Hanford California
425 am PST sun Nov 17 2019
dry weather will continue over the district through Tuesday. Above
normal afternoon temperatures can be expected today and Monday. A
cooling trend will occur for the remainder of the week with the
possibility of wet weather from Tuesday night into Thursday night,
especially over the mountains and desert.
a ridge of high pressure is nosing inland across central California while
a weak upper low slips southward toward southern baja. Some high
clouds are spilling over the ridge but our skies are mostly clear
and we can expect just some patchy fog in the San Joaquin Valley
this morning with seasonably cool morning lows.
Dry conditions will continue today and Monday with temperatures
trending upward beneath the building ridge. By Monday, highs
should reach around 10 degrees above climo.
Tuesday will be the beginning of a significant change in
conditions over our area as models show a developing trough
dropping southeast from the Pacific northwest region while the
baja low drifts northeast. The first effect will be slightly
lower afternoon highs on Tuesday. By later Tuesday night we will
have a chance for some precip in the desert and mountain areas as
the trough slides south and develops an upper low near the central
California coast while the baja low lifts toward the southwest US.
Models are quite similar as they continue to swing the developing
low pressure system into the southwest US Wednesday into Thursday.
This will mean precipitation chances across our area Wednesday,
especially over the mountain and desert areas, and lingering into
Thursday evening over the mountain and desert zones.
Latest total quantitative precipitation forecast guidance shows around 1 to 4 tenths of an inch in
the desert and ranges from around 1/4 to 3/4 of an inch of liquid
in the mountains. Amounts in the sj valley range from a trace near
Merced County to as much as 2 to 3 tenths in the south and east.
Snow level will be mostly around 7000 ft and above, falling as low
as 5500-6000 ft by Thursday as the precip is winding down. Several
inches of accumulating snow will be possible at the higher
elevations Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures will also be
significantly lower with the incoming system, down to around 4-8
degrees below normal for Wednesday and Thursday.
The end of the week and through next weekend will see a return to
drier conditions behind the departing low pressure system, with
temperatures gradually increasing to around seasonal averages.
We can also expect to see more significant fog development in the
valley after the addition of some moisture from the passing
Aviation...areas of MVFR visibilities in haze can be expected in
the San Joaquin Valley with local IFR/LIFR visibilities due to
fog through 17z Sunday. VFR conditions will prevail elsewhere
over the central California interior during the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
on Sunday November 17 2019... fireplace/wood stove burning status
is: no burning unless registered in Fresno... Kern... Kings...
Madera... Merced and Tulare counties.
Further information is available at valleyair.Org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.