Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus66 khnx 150039
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Hanford California
439 PM PST Thu Nov 14 2019
Update...for air quality information.
cooling trend continues today and tomorrow, with near normal highs
expected for tomorrow afternoon. Chance of patchy fog tomorrow
morning, and again Saturday & Sunday morning as morning lows will
be slightly cooler those days. Warming trend early next week
before a change in the pattern by midweek next week. Cooler temps,
additional cloud cover, and perhaps a chance of precipitation will
accompany this pattern change.
another hazy day today in the San Joaquin Valley. High
temperatures will drop a few degrees today from yesterday as a
weak trough moves towards central California. Temperatures will
continues to fall tomorrow, to near normal, with afternoon highs
forecast in the mid to upper 60s. Morning lows will also fall
several degrees, generally into the mid 40s. The lowering of
temperatures will also allow for a chance of patchy fog in the
lowest elevations of the San Joaquin Valley tomorrow, especially
in areas where irrigation/farming are. Morning lows will stay cool
Saturday and Sunday morning, so patchy fog may also be possible
those days. A warming trend for Sunday and Monday will occur as a
Rex block pattern sets up, with the County Warning Area in the ridge portion of
The Block. This will allow for afternoon high temperatures to
increase into the upper 70's by Monday, which will put US 10-12
degrees above average for mid November.
Also by Monday, medium-range models are showing a ull dive down
from the Pacific northwest and start to break down the ridge
portion of The Block that is forecast to occur over California.
This would permit for some cooling to happen on Tuesday as
heights fall over the forecast area. On Wednesday, model spread
begins to increase, but there is general agreement that the
Pacific northwest low will have some interaction with the upper
low portion of the eroded Rex block. The GFS and the Euro have
come into better agreement recently regarding the evolution of the
upcoming upper-level pattern shift next week. This scenario would
allow for a chance of precipitation to materialize in the Mojave
Desert in Kern County by Wednesday afternoon and into Thursday.
Additional precip could happen in the southern Sierra Nevada in
this situation, but details are not clear enough this far out to
specify where or how much. Furthermore, the models could flip
back into being into strong disagreement in subsequent runs, so
confidence is still not very high in the above scenario. Regardless
of the chance of precipitation occuring in our forecast area, the
forecast pattern shift by midweek next week will likely lead to
increased winds through the mountain passes, added cloud cover,
and lower afternoon high temperatures than we have been recently
experiencing. Stay tuned as forecast details are refined over the
next few days.
Aviation...areas of MVFR visibilities due to haze can be
expected in the San Joaquin Valley through 12z Friday. IFR
visibilities possible in patchy fog in the San Joaquin Valley 12z
Friday through 17z Friday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
over the central California interior for at least the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
on Friday November 15 2019... unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Kings County. Fireplace/wood stove burning status is: no burning
unless registered in Fresno... Kern... Madera and Tulare counties.
No burning for all in Kings County.
Further information is available at valleyair.Org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.