Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus66 khnx 222205
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Hanford California
305 PM PDT sun Sep 22 2019
Synopsis... temperatures will fall back to average on Monday
before rebounding to above average from Tuesday through Thursday.
Dry conditions are expected through this time period. Starting on
Friday, our pattern will become cooler, along with increased
chances of precipitation across the area.
temperatures across the central California interior continue to
trend upward today. Most locations are up to 6 degree f warmer compared
to this time yesterday, and between 3 to 6 degree f above normal. A
narrow upper level trough along with a weak cold front is currently
moving into norcal. The most this feature will bring US is an increase
in cloud cover into the northern County Warning Area. In addition, a weak disorganized
low pressure off the socal coast is spreading some upper level clouds
into Kern County. Low temperatures tonight will remain generally
be between 3 to 7 degree f above normal.
The upper level trough and weak cold front will move through the
area into central Nevada on Monday morning. Short-term models
then drop this trough southward into southern Nevada by Monday
night. 1000-500mb thicknesses will slightly fall through the day,
which will be enough to decrease our high temperatures across the
area back to average.
From late Monday through Thursday morning, model consensus that
the aforementioned upper level low will cut off from the main
flow and anchor itself over the Arizona/Mexico border. Our area will
experience increased atmospheric thicknesses through Thursday and
our afternoon temperatures will once again get back into the mid
to upper 90s in the valley and desert, which will be some 5 to 10
degree f above average. Conditions will remain dry across the area
through this time frame.
By Friday through the end of the period next Sunday, long-term
models develop a broad upper trough across the northern Continental U.S.. at
this point, models begin to diverge in their solutions. The European model (ecmwf)
initially has a deeper upper low digging into the pacnw on Friday
and then moves this low into the northern plains by late Saturday.
On the otherhand, the GFS waits to bring in a deep upper level
trough into norcal on Sunday. Both models do show a increase in
onshore flow, as well as increased chances of minor precipitation
accumulations especially into the Sierra due to orographical
effects. Temperatures will be cold enough to keep the chances of
snowfall and minor accumulations starting above 10,000ft on
Friday, then dropping to 7,000ft by Sunday. Temperatures through
this time frame will be 10 to 15 degree f below average.
VFR conditions will prevail at mce, mer, fat, visible and bfl through
at least the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
!!!! bulletin error !!!!
please make a note in the station log
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.