Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus66 khnx 141125
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Hanford California
325 am PST Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis...an upper level system will bring a chance of rain and
mountain snow through Saturday morning. A second system will
usher in cooler air, light precipitation, and gusty desert winds
Saturday afternoon through early Sunday. Ridging Monday and
Tuesday will keep weather quiet before another possible storm
system impacts central California during the middle of next week.
Discussion...mainly zonal flow prevails over central California
with a few showers at this time. Otherwise, mid and high clouds
continue to stream onshore. Expect showers to taper off later
this morning, at least in the Central Valley. An ongoing chance of
mountain precipitation continues through this evening into Sunday
morning as another trough passes over northern California into
the Great Basin, or as an inside slider. We're not anticipating
much precipitation for the remainder of this weekend. However,
gusty winds are likely in the Tehachapi Mountains and the Kern
County desert areas, with the strongest gusts below the passes and
canyons. Gusts to 55 mph are likely in these areas, although some
locally stronger gusts are possible at times this evening and
overnight into Sunday morning. Cooler overnight low temperatures
are expected both Sunday and Monday mornings in much of our
While weather will be relatively quiet on Monday and Tuesday, fog
development in the San Joaquin Valley will be a possibility
during the nights and mornings. Otherwise, seasonal to slightly
below average daytime temperatures will prevail during this
By Wednesday morning, the next storm system arrives. The upper-
level low and associated trough are projected to pass over central
and northern California until the afternoon and will be over the Great
Basin by Wednesday evening. There are some notable model
differences in terms of moisture, but it appears precipitation
will be generally light with this next system.
Another period of ridging is possible late in the week, and yet
another storm system is possible by next weekend. However, there
are significant differences in the latest model runs in terms of
both strength and timing with this next system. More details to
follow as we get closer.
Aviation...IFR vis in mountain obscurations through the Sierra
Nevada and Kern County mountains in low clouds through at least
12z Sunday. Wind gusts over 40 knots possible over the Kern County
mountains 21z Saturday through 15z Sunday. Local MVFR vis and
cigs in the San Joaquin Valley in showers through 12z Sunday.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected elsewhere across the central California
interior for the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
on Saturday December 14 2019... fireplace/wood stove burning
status is: no burning unless registered in Fresno... Kern and
Further information is available at valleyair.Org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 am PST this morning for caz192.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 am PST Sunday for