Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 khgx 151622
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1022 am CST Fri Nov 15 2019
Short term [today through saturday]...
Skies clearing out rapidly and should be clear and sunny the
remainder of the day. Temperatures should reach the upper 50s to
around 60 with light northerly winds. Winds and seas over the
coastal waters well offshore still supporting scec. Could see the
winds offshore relaxing late afternoon and may be able to drop the
scec in the afternoon coastal waters forecast package.
Aviation [12z taf issuance]...
VFR...clear skies and north winds relaxing tonight with calm
conditions at most inland sites by 03-05z.
Previous discussion /issued 608 am CST Fri Nov 15 2019/...
short term [through Monday night]...
areas of dense fog situated across the northern 1/3 of the County Warning Area
early this morning. Sref guidance hints that the dense fog advsy
may need to be extended further SW prior to sunrise so we'll be
keeping an eye on that. In addition, freezing temps will probably
sag into extreme northern parts of the region, so added 3-4 hours
of freezing fog to the grids there. Not expecting any significant
travel impacts, but there could be a thin coating of ice on car
windshields and elevated structures. Fog should burn off by mid
morning and yield mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day
(mclr skies tonight) with upper ridging & sfc high pressure in
Clouds should begin returning to the area Sunday as the high moves
ewd and moisture makes its way back in from the western Gulf. A
trof will dig southward across the plains into the Mississippi
Valley this weekend which will send a diffuse frontal boundary
toward the area Sunday night and Monday. It should be moisture
starved so am not anticipating much in the way of precip...just a
weak wind shift which should clear things back out early in the
Long term [tuesday through friday]...
expect a gradual warming trend during the midweek period as
onshore winds resume and increase as Lee side pressures fall ahead
of the next mid/upper trof dropping into socal. It should begin
kicking out to the east during the second half of the week. Its
associated frontal boundary should be approaching the area late
thurs or Fri, but not confident whether it'll make it all the way
off the coast or not but should bring our next decent shot of
winds and seas will be decreasing today as the pressure gradient con-
tinues to weaken. High pressure building into the area will maintain
light offshore winds tonight and Sat. As this high moves further east
by sun, a light east/southeast flow will be developing...just ahead of the next
cold front that is progged to push into the coastal waters late sun/
early Mon. This front will likely just be a reinforcing shot of cool
dry air with generally light offshore winds. Scec conditions could be
possible over the offshore waters briefly for Mon. Light onshore winds
are set to return areawide tues night...slowly strengthening through
the week as the next system moves into and develops over the Central
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 61 36 63 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (iah) 60 37 63 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (gls) 57 47 60 50 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
GM...small craft should exercise caution until 8 PM CST this evening
for the following zones: waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel Texas from 20 to 60 nm...waters from High Island
to Freeport Texas from 20 to 60 nm.