Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 khgx 232002
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
302 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019
Short term [tonight through Tuesday afternoon]...
scattered showers and thunderstorms expanding northward through
the area. Slow movers with rainfall rates of up to 1"/hour.
Temperatures should trend down quickly this evening and make for a
pleasant evening. Overnight some patchy fog looks like a good bet
for the areas from Tomball-Conroe to Liberty northward as well as
stratus. Scattered showers should redevelop early Tuesday morning
in the coastal waters and be headed towards Brazoria/Matagorda
counties. Moist axis that was centered over the southeast Texas is going to
be shifting west and by Tuesday afternoon expect precipitable water to have
dropped to less than 1.4" over the eastern areas with greater
long term [tuesday night through sunday]...
The strength and location of stacked ridging near the Gulf Coast
will be a dominant influencer of the weather into this weekend.
Model trends now have the ridge running a touch weaker through the
work week, and potentially even strengthening as it retreats
eastward this weekend.
All in all, the impacts on the forecast do not seem terribly
significant at this time. High temps from the work week into the
weekend are a little closer together than before, and with lower
precipitable water expected - below the median for the season and
as low as the 25th percentile - I still don't think we'll be able
to manage much more than isolated showers and storms for the bulk
of the week ahead.
Of course, with precipitable water still expected to surge to
around or above 2 inches this weekend, we should still look for
better convective coverage. While the period of the strongest
ridge is now progged to be over the weekend, it will have
retreated to the east, so less influence for our northwest corner
of the Gulf, and there seems to be continued general model
agreement for a vort Max rolling around the edge of the ridge this
weekend, further supporting rainfall potential.
all river watches and warnings have been canceled, as gages
around the area go beneath flood stage at all points. That said,
there are still a number of roads reported to be covered by water
in Chambers County - so, while smaller, the areal Flood Warning in
the east continues. In addition, Harris County has come across
several roads covered with water and impassable in the vicinity of
Cedar bayou, so an areal Flood Warning continues there as well.
While today's rainfall is certainly not helping things dry out in
the locations most heavily impacted by the past week's rainfall,
significant new flooding is not expected.
the National Hurricane Center has identified an area of interest
in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that has some potential for
development. At this time, the only impacts anticipated for our
area would be slightly higher seas in the Gulf. However, some
outlier model solution do suggest an area of low pressure (but not
necessarily a tropical cyclone) that may drift our way. While
these solutions are not a significant consideration in the
forecast, it does serve as a reminder that it is a good idea to
monitor the forecasts in the coming days to ensure that
expectations have not changed.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 73 92 71 93 71 / 10 20 0 10 0
Houston (iah) 74 90 72 90 72 / 20 10 0 10 0
Galveston (gls) 81 87 79 87 79 / 0 10 0 10 0