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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
318 am CST sun Nov 17 2019

Short term [tonight through tuesday]...
trof currently swinging thru the plains toward the Mississippi
Valley. Its associated surface front will become very diffuse as
it moves into the area this evening and overnight...more-or-less
expect a dry passage W/ winds shifting to the NW @ 2-6mph. Low &
mid level ridging will then prevail into early parts of the week
bringing pleasant wx to the region. Light onshore flow resumes
Tuesday. 47

&&

Long term [tuesday night through sunday]...
as Lee side pressures fall, southeast/S winds increase into midweek
bringing a warming trend and drawing deeper Gulf moisture back
into the region. In the upper levels, flow will transition to a
swly direction ahead of western trof. Impulses embedded in the
flow may aid in some isolated to scattered shra/tstm development
Wed-thurs...but more favorable chances should be positioned a bit
north of the region.

Medium range solutions are in pretty decent agreement showing the
next front moving into N TX Thursday night into Friday...but
diverge on the timing/details as to when it pushes thru most of se
TX. Several deterministic runs show a somewhat stronger frontal
push Friday evening and overnight...with shra/tstms along the
boundary ending with fropa. However, European model (ecmwf) indicated a slower
moving boundary not making it thru until Sat aftn...which would
extend shra/tstm chances until then. Time will tell... 47

&&

Marine...
generally light east/southeast winds are expected today...ahead of a weak
cold front that is forecast to move into the coastal waters to-
night. Light northerly winds to prevail Mon in the wake of this
front. But with high pressure quickly building into the County Warning Area and
then moving out to the east, we should see onshore winds return
across the Gulf waters by tues. These southeast winds should be on the
increase tues night/early Wed as the pressure gradient tightens
(in response to the next low pressure system moving into/across
the central plains). Scec conditions are possible over the near
and offshore waters starting Wed afternoon, and could linger on
into thur afternoon. The next cold front looks to move into the
region/off the coast sometime Fri night or early Sat morning. 41

&&

Aviation [12z issuance]...
high clouds moving in from the west should help keep the patchy
fog development (as it has been doing these last couple of mor-
nings) at Bay this morning. Generally light/variable winds will
prevail through this afternoon...out ahead of a weak cold front
this is forecast to move into the County Warning Area tonight. No precipitation
is expected with the front and should just be mainly a reinfor-
cing shot of cool/dry air. Otherwise...no major issues with VFR
conditions prevailing. 41

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...

College Station (cll) 69 45 70 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (iah) 66 49 70 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (gls) 64 56 67 58 70 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...

Texas...none.
GM...none.

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