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fxus64 khgx 180535 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1135 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019

Aviation [06z taf issuance]...

Clouds have cleared out a little sooner than expected so as a
result we have fog developing in the rural areas of southeast Texas. We
already have visibility reduced at kcxo and klbx. We will likely
see visibility bounce between IFR and MVFR for some of these
terminals but overall expect MVFR visibility. Kiah and khou should
remain clear of fog where we may need to amend for ksgr. It seems
that fog could clear out with the passing of a front before
sunrise but winds with the front are not that strong. Mixing may
not be enough to erode the fog.



Previous discussion /issued 904 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019/...

Near term [through tonight]...

Cloud decks at 4000ft to 5000ft are beginning to erode a little
sooner than thought but still holding on along the coast. Initial
forecast update was to temperatures as clouds may keep cooling in
check. After midnight if clouds thin enough, then cooling will be
stronger and could see low temperatures a touch lower than what we
have in the forecast. Dewpoints are also a touch higher so this
may keep temperatures from going too low as well with patchy fog
forming in the morning. We are not expecting widespread fog but
some patches in the typical rural areas.


Short term [through monday]...

High pressure ridge will continue to shift eastward as a mid to
upper level trough moves across the Central Plains and into the
Great Lakes region. Winds will briefly become south to southwest
this afternoon; however, a weak surface cold front is expected to
move across the region this evening and tonight, bringing back
northerly winds by early Monday morning. Because of limited low
level moisture and lack of instability, shower development is not
expected as the front moves through. Some areas could experience
brief periods of patchy fog overnight into the early morning hours.
Low temperatures tonight will range in the mid 40s to low 50s in
areas north of I-10 and in the low to upper 50s in areas south of
I- 10. Mid to upper level high pressure and drier air mass is
expected Monday limiting rain chances. High temperatures are expected
to reach the upper 60s to low 70s areawide by Monday afternoon. 24

Long term [monday night through sunday]...

Weather stays quiet until midweek when surface high pressure moves
off to the east and a strengthening onshore flow comes back to the
area and brings increasing clouds and a return of low rain chances
(with the help of passing shortwaves in the southwest flow aloft).
We continue to carry increasing rain chances as we head on into the
Thursday through Saturday time period as precipitable water values
rise ahead of our next cold front. Look for this front to move
through the area some time on Friday or Friday night and off the
coast some time Friday night or early Saturday morning. Drying out
might not begin until Saturday or Saturday night. As of now, Sunday
looks like the more tranquil weather day for next weekend.

As for temperatures, Monday night will be cool (lows in the 40s
inland and in the 50s near and along the coast). The entire area
will be warming back up Tuesday through Thursday with highs mainly
in the 70s each day and lows in the 50s on Wednesday and in the
60s on Thursday. The timing of the front could mess things up on
Friday, but will generally show a slight downward trend. With the
eventual passage of the front, look for temperatures to cool back
down over the weekend with lows mainly in the 40s/50s and highs
in the 60s.

No freezing temperatures are in the forecast through next Sunday. 42


Light easterly wind flow expected for the rest of today. A weak
surface cold front will move across the Gulf water tonight,
returning the northerly wind flow early Monday morning through
Tuesday morning. Winds are forecast to increase and become more
south to southeasterly Tuesday as the pressure gradient strengthens.
Scec conditions are possible over the near and offshore waters
Wednesday through Thursday. The next cold front looks to move across
the Gulf waters sometime Friday night or early Saturday morning.
There are still many inconsistencies in the model guidance with
respect to the timing of the front, thus, the long term marine
forecast is subject to change during the next few days. 24


Preliminary point temps/pops...

College Station (cll) 68 46 70 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 20
Houston (iah) 68 49 70 49 73 / 0 0 0 0 20
Galveston (gls) 65 57 67 58 69 / 0 0 0 0 20


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...



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