Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
241 am EDT Mon Sep 16 2019
a surface trough over the Canadian Maritimes will drop into
northern and eastern sections of the area later today
accompanied by a few clouds, then linger into Tuesday night
before high pressure builds across the area for the remainder of
the week. A warming trend begins Thursday with above normal
temperatures expected for Friday and the weekend.
Near term /through today/...
at 06z...a weak surface boundary extended from the Gulf of Maine
through southern New England and the lower Great Lakes. A surface
trough was over northern Quebec. GOES infrared imagery showed
several bands of broken clouds associated with these boundaries.
For today...some early morning stratus and fog where skies
scatter out through dawn. Otherwise...skies should average
partly sunny today with the trough over Quebec producing a bit
more in the way of clouds this afternoon over our northern and
eastern Maine zones as it settles southward. Highs today will
range from 60s in the mountains to lower 70s for the remainder.
There could be a few late day sprinkles over our northern and
eastern Maine zones with the trough...otherwise a dry day is
Short term /tonight through 6 PM Tuesday/...
tonight we'll see some lingering low and mid clouds from
northern New Hampshire through much of our northern and eastern
Maine zones with the surface trough. These clouds will limit how
much valley stratus and fog we see across the mountains tonight.
Elsewhere...a mainly clear night with some late night stratus
and fog for the lower half of the Connecticut valley. Lows
tonight should be mainly in the 40s. On Tuesday...a few clouds
with a passing shortwave over our northern and eastern Maine
zones while the rest of the area should be mostly sunny as high
pressure builds in from the west. Highs will range from lower
60s in the mountains to upper 60s and lower 70s elsewhere.
Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
a short wave trough will pass southward across the forecast area
Tuesday night with surface high pressure settling across northern
New England by late Tuesday night into Wednesday. This short
wave trough will likely bring a period of clouds Tuesday night
into early Wednesday along with a slight chance of a few
showers. Latest model runs have increased low level moisture
and clouds in association with this feature, and have followed
suit in our forecast products.
Otherwise, with cool high pressure firmly entrenched across the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday night we expect highs and
lows to be a little lower than normal - with good radiational
cooling conditions expected right through Friday morning. Have
populated min temp grids with a blend of GFS and ec MOS to
better capture the potential for good radiational cooling.
Thereafter, the high pressure system moves off the the east,
albeit slowly. This will allow for a warming return flow this
weekend into Monday with temperatures possibly a good 10 degrees
above normal. Chances of precipitation will be low right
Aviation /06z Monday through Friday/...
short term /through Tuesday/... VFR. LCL IFR psb 08 - 12z both
this morning and Tuesday morning in valley stratus and fog.
Long term...a period of MVFR cigs will be possible Tuesday night
into early Wednesday in association with a trough of low
pressure moving through. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
Wednesday through Friday with the exception of valley fog at
night during this period.
short term /through Tuesday/...winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory
threshold as high pressure gradually builds in.
Long term...conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
thresholds Tuesday night through Friday. Some swells from
distant Hurricane Humberto may begin to affect the waters by
late in the weekend.