Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS61 KGYX 220120 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 820 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A brief period of freezing rain will be possible in the mountains and foothills later tonight, but it will be very light at best. A cold front moves through Friday afternoon with gusty winds following in its wake for Friday night into Saturday. Low pressure may affect the region on Sunday with mixed precipitation and rain, followed by high pressure early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Update... Light precipitation over western New York State will continue to move east per current radar imagery. Models suggest, most of the precipitation late tonight will be confined to the north and also be very light. While profiles indicate light rain and snow showers across northern portions of the region, there may be patchy freezing rain as well. Will continue to monitor for upcoming ptypes late tonight. Prev Disc... High pressure centered over the area late this afternoon. Moisture is trapped under the subsidence inversion on the upwind (north) side of the mountains, with low clouds very stubborn to dissipate. As the high moves just east of us this evening, expect these low clouds to dissipate. Skies have been mostly clear south of the mountains and this should persist into the evening. Tonight and into early Friday a warm front moves through. Parent surface low is well off to the north and the system is quite moisture starved, so expect only light precip, mainly well inland. Mixed precip including light freezing rain is a concern along and north of the mountains, but at this point feel that precipitation is too light to warrant an advisory and hit it up in hazardous weather outlook instead. Strong cold front blasts through around midday Friday with gusty west winds behind the front and scattered showers, mainly as rain except snow in higher terrain. Temps falling late in the day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Cold airmass moves in Friday night and remaining breezy. Decreasing clouds south/downwind of the mountains but clouds and snow showers persisting along and north of the mountains. Less than 1 inch accumulation lower elevations of the north, with a couple inches of snow possible over the mountains, especially the Whites. High pressure late Saturday into Saturday night with cool temps and easing winds. Next potential system comes Sunday. Models gradually coming into better agreement on a Nor'easter track through the Gulf of Maine that will likely bring precipitation to at least the coastal plain and possibly north into the mountains as well. Temps could be cold enough for snow inland just a bit from immediate coast, so definitely something to watch. Far from a certainty at this point, but likely enough that went with likely PoPs. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Potential Nor'easter kicks out Sunday night, with high pressure Monday into early Tuesday. Airmass behind the Sunday system not that cool, with temps fairly close to average. Next potential system is Wednesday. Most models and model ensembles have a system, but vary greatly in timing and track. Did raise PoPs up to likely. System will likely have a more northern track than the Sunday system so if this system pans out, wintry precip would mainly be well inland. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term...VFR this evening except MVFR cigs persisting early evening north of the mountains. System late tonight and early Friday could bring MVFR cigs to northern TAF sites, but sites closer to the coast will mostly be VFR. Low level wind shear an issue at all TAF sites late tonight into early Friday. Gusty winds at the surface areawide late Friday. Long Term...Gusty winds persisting into Saturday, then easing. Mostly VFR Friday night into Saturday night, except perhaps MVFR or IFR persisting along/north of the mountains Friday night into early Saturday. Possibility for MVFR/IFR Sunday with potential Nor'easter. VFR likely Monday/Tuesday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Issued gale warning for strong west winds behind the cold front late Friday into Friday night. Seas in the neighborhood of 5 feet. Long Term...Nor'easter Sunday has the potential to bring gales depending on eventual track. Below small craft early next week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 PM Friday to 5 AM EST Saturday for ANZ150>154.