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000 
FXUS61 KGYX 220120
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
820 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A brief period of freezing rain will be possible in the
mountains and foothills later tonight, but it will be very 
light at best. A cold front moves through Friday afternoon with 
gusty winds following in its wake for Friday night into 
Saturday. Low pressure may affect the region on Sunday with 
mixed precipitation and rain, followed by high pressure early 
next week. &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Update...
Light precipitation over western New York State will continue to
move east per current radar imagery. Models suggest, most of 
the precipitation late tonight will be confined to the north and
also be very light. While profiles indicate light rain and snow
showers across northern portions of the region, there may be
patchy freezing rain as well.

Will continue to monitor for upcoming ptypes late tonight.

Prev Disc...
High pressure centered over the area late this 
afternoon. Moisture is trapped under the subsidence inversion on
the upwind (north) side of the mountains, with low clouds very 
stubborn to dissipate. As the high moves just east of us this 
evening, expect these low clouds to dissipate. Skies have been 
mostly clear south of the mountains and this should persist into
the evening.

Tonight and into early Friday a warm front moves through. Parent
surface low is well off to the north and the system is quite
moisture starved, so expect only light precip, mainly well
inland. Mixed precip including light freezing rain is a concern
along and north of the mountains, but at this point feel that
precipitation is too light to warrant an advisory and hit it up
in hazardous weather outlook instead.

Strong cold front blasts through around midday Friday with
gusty west winds behind the front and scattered showers, mainly 
as rain except snow in higher terrain. Temps falling late in the
day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Cold airmass moves in Friday night and remaining breezy. 
Decreasing clouds south/downwind of the mountains but clouds and
snow showers persisting along and north of the mountains. Less 
than 1 inch accumulation lower elevations of the north, with a 
couple inches of snow possible over the mountains, especially 
the Whites.

High pressure late Saturday into Saturday night with cool temps
and easing winds.

Next potential system comes Sunday. Models gradually coming into
better agreement on a Nor'easter track through the Gulf of Maine 
that will likely bring precipitation to at least the coastal 
plain and possibly north into the mountains as well. Temps could
be cold enough for snow inland just a bit from immediate coast,
so definitely something to watch. Far from a certainty at this
point, but likely enough that went with likely PoPs.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Potential Nor'easter kicks out Sunday night, with high pressure
Monday into early Tuesday. Airmass behind the Sunday system not
that cool, with temps fairly close to average.

Next potential system is Wednesday. Most models and model
ensembles have a system, but vary greatly in timing and track.
Did raise PoPs up to likely. System will likely have a more
northern track than the Sunday system so if this system pans
out, wintry precip would mainly be well inland.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR this evening except MVFR cigs persisting early
evening north of the mountains. System late tonight and early
Friday could bring MVFR cigs to northern TAF sites, but sites
closer to the coast will mostly be VFR. Low level wind shear an
issue at all TAF sites late tonight into early Friday. Gusty
winds at the surface areawide late Friday.

Long Term...Gusty winds persisting into Saturday, then easing.
Mostly VFR Friday night into Saturday night, except perhaps MVFR
or IFR persisting along/north of the mountains Friday night into
early Saturday. Possibility for MVFR/IFR Sunday with potential
Nor'easter. VFR likely Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Issued gale warning for strong west winds behind 
the cold front late Friday into Friday night. Seas in the
neighborhood of 5 feet.

Long Term...Nor'easter Sunday has the potential to bring gales
depending on eventual track. Below small craft early next week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 PM Friday to 5 AM EST Saturday for 
     ANZ150>154.

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