Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kgyx 190656
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
256 am EDT Thu Sep 19 2019
high pressure will be in firm control across our region through
this weekend with increasingly warm temperatures late this week
and weekend. High surf conditions are expected at ocean beaches
Friday as swells from distant Hurricane Humberto roll on in. A
cold front will approach on Monday and Tuesday with a chance of
showers as it moves through.
Near term /through today/...
a frosty early morning will give way to plentiful sunshine
today with highs within 5 degrees of 70f. Light winds will go
onshore at the coast during the afternoon hours.
Short term /tonight through Friday/...
high pressure ridging will continue over the forecast area
tonight and Friday with increasingly warmer temperatures as a
westerly return flow begins to take shape. Radiational cooling
with valley fog will once again occur tonight. However,
temperatures are expected to be warmer. Even still, patchy frost
will be possible at the best radiators. A few more clouds are
expected on Friday, but mostly sunny skies will be the rule with
temperatures rising well into the 70s. Long period swells
emanating from Humberto will begin to affect the coastline on
Friday. As a result, a high surf advisory has been issued.
Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
warm, moist air mass will be in place across the region this
weekend beneath an upper level ridge. Should see temperatures
gradually warming through Sunday... or possibly Monday. Highs in
the 80s will become increasingly common. With high dewpoints
around, overnight lows will be quite balmy and valley fog will
be likely especially Saturday morning.
The upper ridge moves east while a trough tracks east across
Canada and the northern tier of the US early next week. The
Canadian trough will sling a cold front through northern New
England on Monday. Much of the forcing for more widespread
rainfall will be to the north, but with the front pushing
through we can expect some showers. European model (ecmwf) is a bit slower with
the front and keeps the warm, humid conditions around for one
more day while lingering the rain into Monday night and Tuesday
with a sharper second trough crossing the Great Lakes. European model (ecmwf)
seems to be the outlier in this case, but did maintain some rain
chances Monday night into Tuesday in case this slower scenario
unfolds. It will be cooler and drier behind the front next week,
with temperatures dropping closer to normal, but still perhaps a
few degrees above normal.
Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/...
short term...VFR conditions will prevail through Friday except
for areas of dense valley fog early this morning and again late
tonight. Otherwise clear skies and light winds are expected,
with winds going onshore this afternoon at coastal terminals.
Long term...VFR conditions expected through the weekend except
for early morning valley fog. This fog may be most widespread
Saturday morning. A cold front arriving on Monday will bring
some showers and possibly MVFR conditions at times.
short term...quiet weather on the waters expected today and
tonight with conditions below Small Craft Advisory thresholds. Long period swells
of 5 to 10 feet are expected to move into the waters early
Friday morning and persist through the day.
Long term...high pressure gradually shifts east this weekend
with light winds becoming south to southwesterly on Sunday and
Monday. Could see a few gusts to 25kt as these winds pick up
ahead of the cold front on Monday. Seas will be rather high in
long period swells emanating from Humberto but should be
decreasing on Saturday.
various wave models are in good agreement with 6-10 foot long
period swells moving into the coastal waters by Friday morning
and persisting through the day. These are attributable to
distant Hurricane Humberto. The result will likely be large
breaking waves at ocean beaches with the attendant high threat
for strong rip currents. The swells are forecast to gradually
subside Friday night and Saturday.
ME...frost advisory until 9 am EDT this morning for mez009-013-014-
Freeze warning until 9 am EDT this morning for mez007-008-012-
High surf advisory from 8 am to 10 PM EDT Friday for
New Hampshire...frost advisory until 9 am EDT this morning for nhz003-005>007-
Freeze warning until 9 am EDT this morning for nhz001-002-004.
High surf advisory from 8 am to 10 PM EDT Friday for nhz014.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from noon Friday to 2
am EDT Saturday for anz153.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 4 am Friday to 2
am EDT Saturday for anz150-152-154.