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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
228 am EDT sun Sep 15 2019

a frontal system will slide well offshore this morning followed
by a weak area of high pressure. An area of low pressure passes south
of the region tonight into Monday and will brush far southern New
Hampshire and southwest Maine with a few showers. Once the low
moves east of the region Monday morning, high pressure will
dominate the weather through much of the coming week with seasonable
to above average temperatures.


Near term /through today/...
GOES water vapor imagery showed an impulse over western Quebec
at 06z with an associated cold front crossing the area at
moment. Skies were partly cloudy at the moment with some areas
of fog developing. The front should clear the coast by dawn with
any residual fog quickly burning off. We'll see a warm day with
sunshine fading during the afternoon ahead of the next impulse
and associated weak surface system approaching from the lower
Great Lakes. Highs today will be in the lower and mid 70s with
60s for mountain sections.


Short term /tonight through 6 PM Monday/...
the short wave and weak surface system cross the area late
tonight and early Monday with much of the cloud cover and shower
potential limited to southern sections of New Hampshire and
adjacent southwest Maine. Lows tonight with range from the 40s
across the mountains to lower and mid 50s elsewhere. On
Monday...clouds and showers exit southern sections during the
morning. afternoon a weak trough dropping south
into the region will produce a few clouds across our northern
and eastern Maine zones. Highs tomorrow will range from 60s in
the mountains to near 70 elsewhere.


Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
00z model suite in relatively good agreement, depicting a
relatively dry week ahead with a large anticyclone building over
the region.

Cold air advection will increase Monday night as a trough of low
pressure exits through the Canadian Maritimes. A large high
pressure system at the surface will continue to build over New
England on Tuesday. Good mixing may allow for gusty winds at
times. With 800 mb temperatures between +2c and +6c, afternoon highs
will likely only be in the 60s for both Tuesday and Wednesday.

The slow moving anticyclone will crest over the forecast area on
Thursday, allowing for a warming trend to begin. By Friday,
temperatures will be above normal in all areas with mostly 70s
over the region which will continue into next weekend.

Patchy late night fog will occur through much of the week over
the inland, sheltered valleys.


Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/...
short term /through Monday/...areas of IFR/LIFR through 12z in
stratus and fog then improving to VFR throughout. LCL IFR psb
tonight in mtn valley stratus and fog btw 06 and 12z Monday. Sct
MVFR psb nr the New Hampshire border btw 10 and 14z Monday -shra.

Long term...mainly VFR conditions through next week. Patchy late
night fog is possible beginning Tuesday night for the interior
sheltered valleys.


short term /through Monday/...winds and seas have dropped off
ahead of the cold front and I expect we'll see conditions remain
below Small Craft Advisory for the remainder of the period.

Long term...winds and seas will likely remain below Small Craft Advisory
thresholds through the upcoming week. However, there may be some
locally gusty winds from the north Monday night into Tuesday as
cold air advection develops over the waters. Long period swells
are possible from Humberto late in the week as well.


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories...
New Hampshire...none.


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