Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
234 am EDT sun Aug 25 2019
high pressure will remain across region through the first half
of the week. This will provide dry weather and seasonably cool
temperatures. A series of frontal systems will cross the region
beginning mid week providing several chances for showers.
Near term /through today/...
at 06z...a sprawling 1029 millibar high covered the Great Lakes
and northeast Continental U.S.. GOES water vapor imagery showed a developing
upper low vicinity of the mid Atlantic coast. GOES infrared
showed some patchy low cloud mainly over southern and western
sections of the forecast area. Where skies are currently clear
the light winds should allow areas of valley stratus and fog to
develop through dawn. For today...the high remains anchored to
our north with the onshore flow to continue. Expect a few fair
weather clouds to develop across the interior...especially over
southern sections that will be closest to the developing upper
low. Highs today will be in the lower and mid 70s...with a few
upper 60s along the immediate coast.
Short term /tonight through 6 PM Monday/...
for tonight and Monday...the upper low meanders north and east
across the Gulf of Maine. Meanwhile...the surface high is
anchored to our north with the onshore flow to continue. Expect
mainly clear skies and cool temperatures tonight with valley
stratus and fog likely towards dawn once again. Lows will be
mainly in the 40s...with a few 50 degree readings in urban
centers. Mostly sunny and cool Monday with high temperatures
similar to today.
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
mainly fair weather is expected Tuesday into Wednesday with high
pressure in place. However, increasing low level moisture and
developing onshore flow may allow for some stratus to invade the
coastline. Otherwise, a short wave trough approaching from the
west on Wednesday will aid in pushing a surface cold front eastward
and increasing our chances for showers later Wednesday and
Thursday. There is some potential that moisture from well-
offshore tropical low pressure could get entrained into the
frontal boundary across ME and New Hampshire Wednesday night and Thursday
if the approaching short wave trough is amplified enough. This
could lead to a period of heavy rain. However at this time it's
too early too tell how the two systems will interact, if at all.
Thereafter, Friday and Saturday, generally benign weather is
expected aside from a few showers with another approaching
Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/...
short term /through Monday/...VFR. LCL IFR btw 08 and 12z vcnty
of kleb and khie in stratus and fog this morning and Monday
Long term...mainly VFR Monday night through Wednesday. However,
increasing low level moisture and winds potentially turning
onshore may mean increased chances for low stratus and fog along
the coastal plain Tuesday night and again Wednesday night. In
addition, showers and possible thunder may lower conditions
Wednesday night into Thursday.
short term /through Monday/...onshore flow continues through
Monday with gradually building seas. Winds should stay below 25
kt but seas may reach 5 ft by Monday for the open waters south
of Casco Bay as the NE flow continues.
Long term...a few 5 footers may be present on the ocean waters
Monday night before subsiding Tuesday. Offshore tropical low
pressure could bring higher swells once again Thu and Fri.