Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kgyx 211125
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
625 am EST Thu Nov 21 2019
the weather will turn nicer today and Friday than it has been
the last several days. We will see plenty of sunshine today
downwind on the mountains with highs in the 40s. A brief period
of spotty freezing rain will be possible in the mountains and
foothills later tonight, but it will be very light at best. A
cold front moves through Friday afternoon with gusty winds
following in its wake for Friday night into Saturday. Low
pressure may affect the region on Sunday with mixed
precipitation and rain.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
625 am update...very little change to the going forecast. Special Weather Statement
for patchy black ice remains up until 730 am.
Today is shaping up to be a lot nicer than previous days as
we'll see plenty of sunshine and temperature well into the 40s
in many areas. Winds will also become light by this afternoon.
Upslope stratocu may linger across the mountains through this
morning, but they should see at least partial sunshine this
afternoon as well.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Friday/...
a short wave trough and associated warm front will approach from
the west tonight. Most members of the 00z guidance suite spit
out some spotty very light precipitation tonight in the
mountains and foothills. A bit of this could be spotty freezing
rain so it's possible we'll need an advisory for a few zones for
after midnight tonight. However, at this time it looks too
patchy and Chancy to hoist one at this time. Otherwise, the rest
of the region should remain dry.
A strong cold front approaches from the west on Friday and
consensus has it passing through the region during the afternoon
hours. The front will be fairly moisture starved but a few
showers could accompany the frontal passage, especially in the
mountains and foothills. Temperatures should rise fairly nicely
out ahead of the front, with a few southern zones expected to
get into the 52-56 degree range. Winds should increase as mixing
increases right ahead of the front, with gusts around 30 miles per hour
possible. Gusts up to 40 miles per hour will be possible in the wake of the
front toward evening.
Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
Fri night will remain gusty behind the front along with temps
tumbling into the teens and 20s. Will likely see a period of
upslope snow showers in the mtns...with a few inches possible in
the highest elevations.
Shortwave ridging works across the area Sat and quickly moves thru by
early sun. Then things get more interesting.
Model forecasts are for an upper low drifting across the Continental U.S.
To phase with a nrn stream shortwave trof...currently over the NE
Pacific...that will be diving thru the Great Lakes. As the
phasing trof becomes negatively tilted low pressure is forecast
to amplify along the East Coast. Based on the latest ensemble
guidance confidence is pretty high in measurable precip across
the forecast area. I have gone on the higher side of the multi-
model blend as a result. The lower confidence is in
track...which ultimately drives temps aloft. In this case I
stayed closer to the multi-model blend...which brings some
warmth aloft and at the surface into srn and coastal zones. This
gives a forecast of some snow to start transitioning to rain in
the aforementioned zones with the mtns remaining mostly frozen.
Given that the main player in the forecast scenario is still
over the open ocean I feel like this is a Fair Place to start
the forecast off. By 22.00z model suite a clearer picture should
begin to develop.
After that system high pressure looks to hold just to our S and
keep things quiet until midweek. Ensemble guidance is actually
more bullish on measurable quantitative precipitation forecast for that event...and so I feel
comfortable with the high likely pop that the multi-model blend
Aviation /11z Thursday through Monday/...
short term...VFR conditions are expected today with pockets of
MVFR cigs remaining in the mountains through midday. VFR
conditions should give way to patches of MVFR cigs tonight,
especially away from the coast with occasional MVFR conditions
possible on Friday. A strong cold front will pass across the
region Friday afternoon with strong westerly wind gusts after
20z or so, perhaps up to 35 kt.
Long term...lingering IFR or lower possible in upslope shsn
around hie Fri night but otherwise VFR conditions behind the
cold front. Wly surface gusts in excess of 25 kt continue into
Sat morning before diminishing. Coastal storm is becoming more
likely for sun into Mon...with widespread MVFR or lower likely
in precip. Low confidence in ptype which really drives chance
for widespread IFR. If trends are colder with more snow...IFR
becomes more likely. Right now forecast keeps the majority of
taf sites predominately rain.
short term...Small Craft Advisory conditions continue outside the bays through
early afternoon today when winds and seas drop below Small Craft Advisory
criteria. A gale watch has been posted for all waters starting
Friday afternoon as a strong cold front passes across the
Long term...best chance for gale force wind gusts continues to
be outside of the bays Fri night into early Sat...but bays will
be close enough that gale watch continues for all waters. Winds
and seas gradually diminish Sat...but fairly quickly a follow up
coastal storm will track near the Gulf of ME sun. Depending on
the track another period of gales cannot be ruled out late sun
Marine...gale watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for anz150-