Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kgsp 202157
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
557 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019
dry high pressure will persist over the region through the
weekend, with temperatures gradually warming. A cold front
will then cross the region from the northwest early next
week, but with limited moisture. Dry and warm high pressure
will return for the rest of next of next week.
Near term /through Saturday/...
600 PM update...very minor changes were made to the going fcst.
Surface dewpoints continue to mix-out a bit lower than progged and
have made localized adjs.
As of 130 PM EDT friday: mostly sunny skies expected through the
rest of the day with just a few passing mid-level cumulus through
the rest of the afternoon. The only place with any advertised pop is
the smokies, where some limited moisture may allow a couple showers
to develop this afternoon. A dry surface high centered over the
eastern Carolinas will keep conditions pleasant through the rest of
today, with high maxing out near 80 in the upstate/Piedmont and the
mid 70s elsewhere.
An upper ridge will amplify over the eastern 2/3 of the Continental U.S.
Tomorrow, and though we'll stay dry, temperatures will being to
rebound. Max temps will be a couple degrees above average, with min
temps near normal. Some patchy fog may develop in the mountains
again tomorrow morning, but otherwise sunny skies are expected
through the rest of the day.
Short term /Saturday night through Monday/...
as of 2:45 PM EDT friday: the short-term fcst picks up at 00z on
Sunday with steep upper ridging still in place over the region and
an upper trof moving across the northern plains. Upper ridging
will remain in place thru the short term period, but will get
flattened as the upper trof moves across the Great Plains and
over the Great Lakes. At the surface, dry high pressure will be
centered just off the Carolina coast and gradually drift farther
offshore thru the period. By the end of the period late Monday,
a diffuse cold front will be moving into the fcst area from the
northwest. Overall, things should remain dry thru the period with just
some slight chance pops along the NC/tenn border. Temperatures
will warm each day with values well-above normal for mid-sept.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
as of 2:35 PM EDT friday: the extended fcst picks up at 00z on
Tuesday with an upper trof axis lifting NE and over New England.
Heights gradually recover over the next few days and then increase
even more as another dominate upper ridge builds across the eastern
Continental U.S. As the period ends. At the surface, a diffuse cold front will
be moving thru the County warning forecast area as the period starts. It's still looking
mostly dry with reinforcing high pressure spreading back over the
area in it's wake and lingering for the remainder of the period.
The sensible fcst was changed little and should be dry except for
some slight chance pops over the higher terrain as the front moves
over the area. Temps will remain well-above normal thru the period.
Aviation /22z Friday through Wednesday/...
at kclt and elsewhere: dry high pressure will keep almost all sites
VFR through the taf period. The exception will be kavl, where
guidance is hinting at some low stratus development and potential
valley fog development again in the morning hours tomorrow. Have
reflected this with a tempo in the going taf. Winds at all sites
will be very light and generally vrb for tonight, remaining light
tomorrow and gaining a generally southerly component.
Outlook: patchy Mountain Valley fog will possible each morning for
the next week. Otherwise expect VFR conditions.
22-04z 04-10z 10-16z 16-18z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kavl high 100% high 91% low 56% high 100%
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kand high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled taf issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link: