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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids Michigan
722 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Latest update...
aviation

Synopsis...
issued at 306 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

- the basic theme this week is more rain opportunities, but warmer.

- Heavy rainfall threat has decreased a bit.

&&

Discussion...(this evening through next monday)
issued at 306 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Little change to the going forecast. Latest vis loop shows lots of
sunshine north of M-20 and overcast south of there. The clearing
line may dip a bit farther south late this afternoon, but clouds
will redevelop tonight. Looking for cloudy skies tonight along with
some patchy fog under weak high pressure which is centered over
Ontario. Latest consshort guidance points toward some clearing after
2 PM Tuesday, but even that will be short lived.

Weak low pressure will push a cold front through the cwa Tuesday
night. European model (ecmwf)/GFS show another low developing on the western end of
the front over Nebraska and then moving east-northeast toward IL/in. Latest
model trends keep the low closer to I-70. This would also keep the
heavier rain south of the cwa. This system doesn't appear as
menacing as it did a few days ago but any rain over the southern cwa
will be troubling for farmers trying to get into their fields. We
may be looking at another half to inch of rain from Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday. And the rain chances don't stop there.
Both main models show an active warm front pushing through the state
Saturday/Sunday. Showers and storms will be in the forecast then
too.

High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s this week, except
for around 70 Thursday.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 719 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Clouds will persist through tonight and that could limit the dense
fog risk somewhat. I have trended the forecast to feature less in
the way of sub IFR iimpacts later tonight. There is some potential
for the clouds to break up on Tuesday so we featured that in the
forecast.



&&

Marine...
issued at 306 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Outside of some patchy fog, we don't see any marine hazards tonight
nor Tuesday. Wind will be in the 5 to 15 knot range for the next 48
hours.



&&

GRR watches/warnings/advisories...
Michigan...none.
Lm...none.
&&

$$

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