Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kgrr 242337 
afdgrr

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids Michigan
737 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Latest update...
aviation/marine

Synopsis...
issued at 308 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

-humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms this
evening

-a few severe storms possible Tuesday evening

-very warm and Summer-like mid to late week

&&

Discussion...(this evening through next monday)
issued at 308 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

The cold front was pushing eastward through Iowa and will arrive
in Michigan this evening. The atmosphere out ahead of it will be
moist and unstable. Aloft the axis of a mid level wave will pivot
through the area during this time providing lift to support rather
numerous showers and thunderstorms for a few hours. Deep layer
shear is strong enough to support organized convection but so far
it has been rather weak. We will maintain the high probabilities
for precipitation going.

A fast moving shortwave tracks in from the west northwest late
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Deep layer shear is supportive of
strong to severe storms. In addition the instability exist. We
will introduce some pops for Tuesday afternoon and bump them up
for the evening.

Mid level ridging develops over the western Great Lakes for the
end of the week. Thus a moderation to the temperatures is
forecasted. Afternoon/evening storms look possible as the
instability builds each day.




&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 735 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

One area of showers with impacts was pulling east of the taf sites
leaving behind scattered to broken MVFR clouds. A broken line of
storms with gusty winds was approaching from the west and will
likely lead to some impacts as they track eastward through the taf
sites. A westerly flow of gradually drier air develops for later
tonight behind the storms. We will need to monitor the possible
return of storms later Tuesday from the west after 22z.





&&

Marine...
issued at 735 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

The dense fog advisory was extended for a few more hours. There
was still some areas with thick fog in the advisory area. The
storms rolling in from the west should mix the fog up
somewhat...however impacts could linger for a few more hours.




&&

Hydrology...
issued at 308 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

The crest wave moving down the Grand River and is now around the
city of Grand Rapids. Behind this crest the water levels will
lower gradually. It looks like the crest on the Kalamazoo has
passed through New Richmond. Additional rainfall through the end
of the week is not expected to be significant for whole basins.
Thus falling levels look likely.

&&

GRR watches/warnings/advisories...
Michigan...Beach hazards statement from midnight EDT tonight through
Tuesday afternoon for miz043-050-056-064-071.

Lm...dense fog advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for lmz846>849.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for lmz844>849.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations