Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kgrr 231050 
afdgrr

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids Michigan
650 am EDT Wed Oct 23 2019

Latest update...
aviation

Synopsis...
issued at 300 am EDT Wed Oct 23 2019

- partly sunny and breezy today

- rain showers late this afternoon and tonight

- fair weather Thursday through midday Saturday

&&

Discussion...(today through next tuesday)
issued at 300 am EDT Wed Oct 23 2019

Fair wx will briefly return for most of the day today but it will
remain breezy with southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with some
higher gusts particularly near the Lake Michigan shoreline. A sfc trof
and upper level system will combine to bring some rain showers
late this afternoon and tonight.

The wx pattern will finally become more tranquil as a broad sfc
ridge takes hold of our wx pattern Thursday through Friday into
Saturday. This will result in partly cloudy skies and seasonable
temps for this time of year.

Clouds will be on the increase Saturday out ahead of a southern
stream system that will move NE from the southern Continental U.S.. this
system will bring some showers into our fcst area late Saturday
into Sunday. An overall medium range guidance consensus suggests
that the most significant rainfall will stay se of our fcst area.
Nevertheless some steadier rain showers could arrive by Saturday
night.

Longer range computer model guidance shows potential for a cold
and very unsettled wx pattern to develop toward the very end of
the month as a high amplitude upper trough will amplify over the
Great Lakes region. In fact 00z GFS ensembles indicate the high
temp at kgrr may struggle to reach the 40 degree mark by the
30th/31st and the deterministic Max/min numbers are not
surprisingly even colder then the ensemble mean temps.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 647 am EDT Wed Oct 23 2019

Fair wx is expected at the taf sites today. Mkg may take a bit
longer to clear out of the VFR stratocu.

Another low will move across the state tonight. This will bring
some light rain to GRR, mkg, lan, and in the vicinity of the other
taf sites. Cigs will decrease to MVFR overnight.

&&

Marine...
issued at 300 am EDT Wed Oct 23 2019

Gale force winds will continue overnight and the Lake Shore Flood
Warning and Gale Warning headlines have been extended through 11
am. Wave heights will remain significant today only subsiding to
around 3 to 6 feet by mid to late afternoon before finally
subsiding more considerably tonight and Thursday.



&&

GRR watches/warnings/advisories...
Michigan...Lakeshore Flood Warning until 11 am EDT this morning for miz037-
043-050-056-064-071.

Lm...Gale Warning until 11 am EDT this morning for lmz844>849.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations