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fxus63 kgrr 141132 
afdgrr

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids Michigan
632 am EST Thu Nov 14 2019

Latest update...
aviation

Synopsis...
issued at 320 am EST Thu Nov 14 2019

- much less active weather pattern through the weekend

- much below average temperatures moderate a bit

- no significant systems expected through mid week next week

&&

Discussion...(today through next wednesday)
issued at 320 am EST Thu Nov 14 2019

We will be dropping the Winter Weather Advisory for the northern
Lakeshore counties a bit early as precipitation is coming to an end
up there this morning.

It appears by radar trends that the heaviest precipitation with this
system has moved out of the area already. We are seeing the backedge
of the light snow advancing from the northwest corner of the area, toward
the southeast as the upper wave supporting this system pushes through.
Additional snowfall will likely be a dusting at most.

We are watching for the possibility of a little freezing drizzle as
the snow moves out this morning. Low level moisture looks to combine
with residual forcing for a bit, and a dgz becoming unsaturated as
moisture depth decreases. There is no evidence of this occurring yet
upstream, but we will continue to watch for it possibly developing.

Things really quiet down then for a few days, with some moderation
in temperatures expected. The persistent upper trough funneling the
Arctic air into the area will get kicked out by Friday, and a nice
upper ridge moves in for a few days. Temperatures aloft will
generally recover a bit. The exception to this will be a slight
setback in temperatures for Saturday, as a weak cold front slides
south through the area dry. This cold front is not expected to have
enough moisture with it to produce any precipitation.

We will see ridging linger over the area until Monday, providing dry
weather for the area. This ridge will be the result of being in
between a low over the East Coast, and a trough over the plains. The
trough will reinforce the ridge Sunday as it slowly pushes east.

We will see some small chances for rain and snow for Monday and
Tuesday as a upper short wave dives southeast into the region. This wave
will not have much moisture to work with due to a lack of flow from
a good moisture source. Another slight cool down due to the cold
pool aloft coming in can be expected, but nothing like the cold
spell we are just coming out of this week.

Wednesday is looking dry and a bit warmer next week. The pattern
will become a bit amplified with a developing low off of the East
Coast, and the next trough trying to dive in from Canada. Building
heights and a southerly flow will bring some warmer air up into the
area.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 632 am EST Thu Nov 14 2019

Just a little bit of light snow remains roughly southeast of a line from
South Haven to Alma. This snow is producing mainly MVFR
conditions, with some local IFR under the more enhanced bands. We
expect that the snow should exit the area by 14z.

The MVFR ceilings look to last much of the day today. Conditions
look like they should go VFR after 00z tonight. Some additional
low clouds look to move in at the northern terminals toward the
end of this forecast period.

&&

Marine...
issued at 320 am EST Thu Nov 14 2019

Winds and waves are on their way down early this morning as the
strongest gradient moves out of the area. This break in the higher
winds and waves will be short-lived as winds and waves will come up
again tonight, and remain up into Friday ahead of the next front.



&&

GRR watches/warnings/advisories...
Michigan...none.
Lm...Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EST this morning for lmz844>849.

&&

$$

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