Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kgrb 180832 
afdgrb

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
332 am CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

Short term...today...tonight...and Saturday
issued at 332 am CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

High pressure will push east today, allowing winds to turn
southeasterly across the western Great Lakes. Despite the
southerly winds and some sunshine, high temperatures will only
rise into the 50s, which will be around normal for this time of
year. A shallow boundary layer and steep inversion will keep
temperatures from rising into the 60s for most areas. Some mid and
high clouds may stream in at times ahead of an approaching low
pressure system.

The low pressure system will approach the region later tonight and
move through the area during the day on Saturday. The main band of
rain with this system will be fairly narrow given the limited
moisture and lift, therefore rainfall amounts are not expected to
be very impressive. Dry air ahead of the cold front will hold off
rain chances until later tonight for the far western cwa and the
afternoon hours on Saturday for the far eastern cwa. Lows tonight
will generally be in the lower to middle 40s with increased clouds
and some warm air advection. Highs on Saturday will once again be
in the 50s.

Long term...Saturday night through Thursday
issued at 332 am CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

A weak mid level ridge and surface high should help to keep the
forecast area mostly dry through Sunday evening. Then an
approaching surface low pressure system and mid level cyclone will
bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area starting late
Sunday night and continuing through Monday. Expect above normal
temperatures into Monday night but much colder air wrapping around
the departing surface low will result in below normal daytime
temperatures starting Tuesday and continuing through the end of
the forecast period. Precipitation chances continue, but
gradually decrease, in cyclonic flow at the surface and aloft.
Pops drop to no more than a slight chance for all but north-
central Wisconsin by midweek, but another approaching system
brings an increase in the chance for precipitation Wednesday
night and Thursday. The presence of colder air will bring a chance
for mixed rain and snow or light snow to at least parts of the
area Tuesday night and Wednesday night.
&&

Aviation...for 06z taf issuance
issued at 1058 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

High clouds will likely build in from the west overnight through
the day Friday. Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected for each
of the taf sites. Winds will likely become gusty Friday afternoon
as the pressure gradient begins to tighten across the area. A
temperature inversion will likely set up Friday night along with a
llj, which will lead to the potential for low level wind shear. Inluded low level wind shear at
each of the taf sites with this issuance.
&&

Grb watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations