Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kgld 181147
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
447 am MST Mon Nov 18 2019
Short term...(today through Wednesday night)
issued at 332 am MST Mon Nov 18 2019
Warmer and dry conditions are expected today and Tuesday with a
transition to cooler and more active conditions on Wednesday.
A weak short wave trough in the northwest flow is reflected as a
stronger trough at the surface and brings a few sprinkles to the
northeast corner of the forecast area early this morning. The
surface trough is followed by an increasing surface pressure
gradient that will produce gusty northwest winds this afternoon.
Even with the dry and available fuels across the region, the gusty
winds will not create a fire weather concern since minimum
relative humidity values will only go as low as 25-30 percent.
Tonight through Tuesday the northwest flow aloft flattens into a
short wave ridge over the High Plains region as several smaller
disturbances over the Pacific begin to consolidate into a larger
scale upper trough over the U.S. West Coast. The more westerly
flow aloft east of The Rockies develops a surface trough in the
Lee of The Rockies over eastern Colorado on Tuesday. Southwesterly
near surface flow ahead of that trough will help warm
temperatures over the gld forecast area and bring minimum
relative humidity values over far eastern Colorado down to around
20 percent during the afternoon. While relative humidity values
will be near critical, the higher southerly wind speeds will
remain further east over western Kansas. So, no fire weather
statements needed on Tuesday.
Wednesday into Wednesday night, models are attempting to bring
portions of the upper trough over the western U.S. Across The
Rockies and over the High Plains region with a surface low
consolidating over southeast Colorado early Wednesday. The surface
low will lift out along a cold front through central Kansas into
eastern Nebraska and into northern Iowa by Wednesday night. Light
rain showers Wednesday afternoon will mix with and change to
light snow Wednesday night as temperatures cool. There may be
minimal snow accumulations over the northwest portion of the
forecast area, but confidence in any specific solution is very low
at this time given the complexity of the system that as of right
now is in several pieces over the Pacific.
Long term...(thursday through monday)
issued at 325 am MST Mon Nov 18 2019
The gefs supports the European model (ecmwf) 500 mb pattern in the extended forecast
period. A closed low moves over the intermountain west Thursday.
Split flow over North America leads to a ridge over central Canada
and the closed low over Colorado by Friday. A trough moves over
north-central Canada Friday evening allowing the closed low to
rejoin the main flow. As the trough moves east Saturday, the closed
low moves over the Midwest. A shortwave trough extends from the
Midwest into the southwest U.S. Saturday night with high pressure
over the U.S. West Coast. Low pressure pushes into the northern U.S.
Sunday, reaching to the Southern Plains by Monday night.
Leeside troughing is expected Thursday as high pressure moves south
into the Central Plains. High pressure sits over the Central Plains
through Saturday night. A low pressure center develops on the
leeside of The Rockies Sunday. The low sits over southeast Colorado
through Monday. The next cold front enters the Central Plains by
There is a slight chance for rain and snow Thursday through Friday
before dry conditions return through Monday. Temperatures will warm
through Sunday before decreasing Monday. Highs will range from the
mid-30s to 40s Thursday before warming into the 50s by Sunday. Lows
in the upper teens to 20s are expected throughout the extended
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 421 am MST Mon Nov 18 2019
VFR conditions are expected at mck and gld through the 12z taf
Low level wind shear is likely at the start of the taf at gld and mck in the
subsident area in the wake of an exiting short wave trough and
increasing pressure gradient prior to the mixing out of the
surface inversion this morning. Expect the inversion to mix out
around 15z with stronger gusty winds to make it to the surface.
Gust winds will continue through late afternoon and dissipate as
the sun sets and the night time inversion begins to set up. Winds
will go light and turn to the southwest overnight.