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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction Colorado
245 am MST Fri Nov 15 2019

Short term...(today through saturday)
issued at 245 am MST Fri Nov 15 2019

A quiet, transitional day is in store for eastern Utah and western
Colorado today as the ridge axis continues to shift east through
the morning. Upper level flow will shift to the southwest as a
result with ample high level clouds expected to stream overhead
during the latter half of the day. Even with the increased clouds
daytime highs will once again run well above seasonal normals -
close to 10 degrees warmer than normal in some areas - as 700mb
temperatures range from 4 to 8 degrees c. The increased cloud
cover will have the opposite impact on overnight lows tonight by
minimizing the effects of radiational cooling, allowing for
values to trend a few degrees warmer.

Saturday will see a midlevel trough and associated cold front drop
south across the northern rockies. Any hope for substantial
precipitation across our forecast area continues to dwindle as the
bulk of energy remains further east with models trending drier
for our side of the Continental Divide each run. The Gore, park
and Elkhead Mountains will be favored for precipitation with snow
showers developing by early Saturday afternoon with accumulations
of up to an inch and a half possible. The Flat Tops and portions
of the central Colorado mountains may also see light snow showers
but any accumulations will be minimal. Elsewhere, expect mostly to
partly sunny skies with clouds diminishing across The Four
Corners during the afternoon as drier air moves in from the

Long term...(saturday night through thursday)
issued at 245 am MST Fri Nov 15 2019

The shortwave trough will quickly progress east into the plains
Saturday night as high pressure begins to rebuild over the
southwestern Continental U.S.. as a result, dry weather will prevail over
eastern Utah and western Colorado through early next week. The
ridge looks to finally break down on Tuesday as a substantial
trough of low pressure progresses inland across the West Coast.
While there is still ample model discrepancy in regards to the
location and intensity of this Pacific closed low, confidence in
increasing in its actual arrival into the Desert Southwest during
the latter half of the work week. Embedded shortwaves in the
southwesterly flow might even be ejected out ahead of the parent
system, allowing for showers to return to the western slope as
early as Wednesday. However, given the fact that this potential
system is still over 150 hours out, things can change so extended
pops remain on the conservative side.

Temperatures will remain above normal through at least Tuesday
before guidance trends values back to near, or even below,
seasonal normals in response to increased clouds and showers
associated with the potential Four Corners low.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 245 am MST Fri Nov 15 2019

Ample cirrus will stream overhead throughout the day today with
some mid level clouds potentially moving in as well. However, ceilings
will remain above ils breakpoints allowing for widespread VFR
conditions and light winds to persist.


Gjt watches/warnings/advisories...


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