Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kgid 161705
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1205 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019
Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 339 am CDT Wed Oct 16 2019
Dry and then starting to warm up especially by Thursday.
a surface ridge axis will slide east across the forecast area this
morning resulting in light winds and a shift from west
northwesterly winds early this morning to a southerly wind by this
afternoon. Temperatures will be a little slow to rebound today
after a pretty cool start this morning with lows around or a bit
below the freezing mark. The clear to mostly clear skies should
continue through at least Thursday.
not as cool and most areas should be above freezing with southerly
winds keeping US a bit warmer.
the warm air advection will increase across the region with breezy
southerly winds and an upper level ridge of high pressure. This
will push highs into the 70s for most all areas with our
southwestern zones approaching 80 by Thursday afternoon. Dry
weather for those harvesting will continue.
Long term...(thursday night through tuesday)
issued at 339 am CDT Wed Oct 16 2019
Some typical fall 'ups and downs' are expected for the long term
with more amplified patterns aloft and at the mid-levels. With
the majority of the central Continental U.S. Dominated by ridging at the
start of the period Thursday night.
As the ridge and surface high push off to the east on Friday, and
the next trof approaches The Rockies, expect a fairly tight surface
pressure gradient to keep winds up. Winds are expected to remain
blustery through Friday afternoon, along with another day of warm
temperatures in the 70s and near 80 in a few places.
As the trof crosses The Rockies Friday afternoon/evening, it will
push a cold front through the area...and depending on the timing,
could affect lows Friday night/Saturday morning. Currently, models
have increased rain chances with the front primarily for areas more
to the south and east. The best chance looks to be Friday evening,
but could be more so overnight depending on frontal timing. While
instability is weak, there still seems to be just a enough that a
few thunderstorms can't be ruled out.
Saturday's highs won't be too affected by this front though, as
midlevel flow quickly returns to being zonal as the trof lifts to
the east. Saturday's highs still expected to reach the 60s and
possibly even 70. This will be shortlived though as another trof
deepens off to the west. As the surface low deepens in the Lee of
The Rockies, winds are expected to pick up significantly on Sunday,
and the next cold front looks to move through Sunday afternoon.
This system looks to be more organized than the one from Friday,
with the upper low becoming closed, or even cutoff, and the surface
low becoming more distinctive and wrapped. This is expected to keep
winds up on Sunday and even through to Monday afternoon. While
precip seems likely at some point with this system, it won't be wet
the whole time. Models have been trending lower in their precip
chances for Sunday, and some models even keep US dry. A few models
also show a brief bit of instability Sunday afternoon, mainly for
areas further east...meaning a few thunderstorms could also be
Things should dry out on Monday, but with slightly cooler highs in
the 50s and 60s and lows back down into the 30s to around 40.
Aviation...(for the 18z kgri/kear tafs through 18z thursday)
issued at 1204 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019
Quiet weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this taf
period. Overall little in the way of clouds are expected, anything
that does pass through is expected to be in the upper levels.
Winds will remain generally southerly through the period, topping
out this afternoon around 10-15 miles per hour.