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fxus63 kgid 231113 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
613 am CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 345 am CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Hectic shift ongoing as a mesoscale convective vortex (mcv), or a
neddy eddy for you old timers, has triggered thunderstorms that
have and still are dumping copious amounts of rain across small
parts of the County Warning Area. The worst hit so far has been Sherman County where
amounts may have exceeded 6 inches. The mesoscale convective vortex has been sliding ever so
slowly to the southeast and is currently dumping heaving rain over
southern Hall and much of Adams counties. Infrared satellite imagery
showing no signs of tops warming so expect this activity to last
several more hours.

Backing up a bit to the big picture, an active northern stream
continues in the upper levels with troughing in the northeast U.S.,
Weak ridging over the northern plains, and another trough over The
Rockies. At the surface, low pressure was situated over the Lee of
The Rockies, with high pressure over the Great Lakes region. This is
keeping our area in upslope flow in the lower levels.

For today, expecting another day similar to Thursday with weak
upslope sustaining extensive cloud cover and temps staying in the
70s for most of the cwa, except the far south where lower 80s are
forecast. Will need to monitor current tstm complex but once that
moves out of the County Warning Area or weakens, don't expect a lot of precip during
the day. That being said, it really hasn't taken much forcing to
result in rain so plan to go with at least slight pops. None of the
models, including the cams have been of much help with this latest
system so not sure how much we can rely on them.

For tonight, it does look like the upper trough over The Rockies
will begin to slowly push east, bringing US another chance for
rain, especially in the western County Warning Area. Better severe chances appear to
stay just to the west but will need to monitor as the day GOES

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 345 am CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Will keep this short due to ongoing tstms, some severe. Off and
on rain chances are expected to continue into the weekend as we
remain under the influence of the upper trough which will take its
time moving through the Central Plains. Best chances for rain
appear to be Sat into Sunday morning, but could also get clipped
Sunday night before wave pushes east.

As we move into the work week, it appears rain chances will
decrease, but not completely go away. Models are showing our area
will be sitting in between a broad low amplitude trough to the
northeast and ridging to the southwest. Thus we may get periodic
shortwaves moving through the northwest flow, depending on how much
the SW ridge builds into the region. As far as temps go, should be
below seasonal with 70s most of the week.


Aviation...(for the 12z kgri/kear tafs through 12z saturday)
issued at 608 am CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Expect IFR conditions to continue this morning with some
improvement this afternoon. With low level southeast flow,
extensive cloud cover to remain through the period. Fair chance
for addtional shower/tstm activity but difficult to pin down the
exact time of when that will be. Seems like best chance would be
late in the forecast period.


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