Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kgid 112322 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
522 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

..aviation update...

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 148 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Light snow ended behind a departing upper trough axis this morning.
Overall snow reports have been fairly light, generally from one half
of an inch to around an inch and a half. Temps have struggled in the
cold air advection today with minimal diurnal rise, with most
reading holding in the teens this aftn. The cold temps combined with
wind gusts of 25-35 mph have consistently produced wind chill
values in the single digits above and below zero today.

We'll see wind speeds taper off this evening and tonight as a 1042mb
surface high pressure system builds south across the Central
Plains...reinforcing the frigid airmass. Low temps will be
downright cold with lows in the single digits...a solid 20 degrees
colder than what we typically see this time of year.

The airmass moderates (west/east) heading into Tuesday in rising
heights aloft behind the departing upper trough. Temperatures are
forecast to rebound into the mid/upper 40s in our western zones with
mid 30s forecast for our eastern areas. Southwest winds will be on
the increase in the aftn in return flow on the back side of the
surface ridge axis. Model forecast soundings indicate mixing to
around h9 with winds at the top of the layer around 30kts. The gusty
winds and low relative humidity in the low/mid 20th percentile in our southern
zones will need to be monitored for near critical fire weather

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 148 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

The forecast turns a bit more interesting heading into Wednesday
morning as a 110kt 300 mb jet drives a shortwave trough southeast from
the Dakotas across northern and central neb. The associated cold
front crosses our region during the morning with low clouds and
cooler air filtering south behind the boundary. In the better
dynamics in our northern zones (mainly north of Hwy 92), light
wintry precip is possible for a few hours in the morning before
transitioning to rain and ending in the aftn. If latest model
trends are correct, may need to increase pops and/or expand small
precip chances farther South/West. Otherwise another windy day is
expected Wednesday, this time from the northwest behind the cold

Thursday will finally see a reprieve from the windy conditions, with
surface ridging across the plains. Mainly dry weather and fairly
seasonal temperatures are forecast through the remainder of the
extended periods. Over the weekend in the Saturday night/Sunday
time frame an upper trough is forecast to cross the interior conus,
but our area is forecast to remain dry with precip chances
favored more so to our SW and NE as energy splits around US.


Aviation...(for the 00z kgri/kear tafs through 00z tuesday)
issued at 515 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Confidence is high in VFR conditions through tonight and tomorrow.
Winds will become light and variable tonight, but will become
southerly by around 15z on Tuesday. Gusts of 25 to 30kts are
expected through the afternoon.

There is potential for low level wind shear Tuesday night, but this is just
outside of this taf period.


Gid watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations