Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kgid 192050 
afdgid

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
350 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

A few spotty showers have developed over central Nebraska. These
are appear to be diurnally-driven...likely enhanced by remnant
outflow from storms in eastern Nebraska this morning. To account
for this, a slight pop was added for the next few hours.

Additional convection is expected to develop over western Kansas
later this afternoon. This activity will track north-northeastward
towards our forecast area, but virtually all of the cam guidance
shows this activity weakening as it reaches the Furnas and
Phillips County areas. This is reasonable given the very weak
shear available to maintain convective organization.
Nevertheless, slight pops were maintained in these southwestern
portions of the area through the overnight hours to account for
this.

On Friday, we will see another breezy day as the surface pressure
gradient tightens up again. Gusts of 30 to 40 miles per hour appear likely.
Models also show at least some pesky showers and storms as the
leading edge of the upper trough pushes into the area.

Friday night, Storm Prediction Center has maintained a marginal risk for our northern
and western areas as one or more clusters of thunderstorms are
expected to move out of the High Plains. That being said, there is
some question on coverage of storms in our area. Some models keep
US mostly to completely dry through this time period. The 40
percent pops in portions of the forecast area could even end up
being too generous.

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

The upper trough will push the cold front into the area, but
models show this feature stalling in southern portions of the County Warning Area
Saturday evening. This will be a focus for strong to severe storms
and perhaps some excessive rainfall late Saturday night. That
being said, the ensembles keep the heaviest quantitative precipitation forecast south and east of
our forecast area, and our forecast has been adjusted to follow
this trend.

The area then dries out on Sunday as the base of the trough
shoves the front through the region. Temperatures will be cooler
with highs in the mid to upper 70s, but this is still very close
to our climatological normals for this time of year. Warmer
temperatures then return on Monday as ridging builds overhead.

The active pattern will bring another trough and chance for rain
and thunderstorms to the area Monday night into Tuesday. Model
solutions then start to diverge on how they handle the next
system. The Euro has been consistent in cutting it off over the
southwest, but some runs of the GFS keep it progressive. For now
we have a mostly dry forecast for Wednesday and Thursday, but
this will remain somewhat uncertain until models can get a better
grasp on things.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z kgri/kear tafs through 18z friday)
issued at 1149 am CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Confidence is high in VFR conditions through this taf period.

Diurnally driven cumulus is possible this afternoon, and
additional high clouds may move in from the west tonight.

The threat for thunderstorms is pretty low for the terminals.
Therefore the mention of thunderstorms in the vicinity has been removed.

We will likely approach low level wind shear criteria again tonight, although
confidence in the timing and intensity is less certain.



&&

Gid watches/warnings/advisories...
NE...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations