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fxus65 kggw 161536 aaa 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Glasgow Montana
936 am MDT Mon Sep 16 2019


Sent an update this morning, to incorporate the latest near/short
term model data with the best agreement I could find, for sky
cover, winds, pops, etc. Expecting some late evening to midnight
showers and isolated thunderstorms through central Montana, which
could clip our Phillips and Petroleum counties. Also expecting
high temperatures today well above normal - pushing 90 degrees for
many locations.


Previous discussion: upper ridge moves to the east today. SW flow
ahead of an upper trough will continue to keep temperatures much
warmer than normal today with highs in the lower 90s in most areas
with dry weather and clear to partly cloudy skies. While very low
relative humidity is expected over the southern and western portions of the
region, ground remains wet from heavy rain last week which will
limit fire potential.

Surface low develops over central Montana tonight as a cold front
moves into that portion of the state. The low will drift northeast
into southern Saskatchewan Tuesday morning and bring a cold front
across eastern Montana. Meanwhile, an upper trough moves through
eastern Montana Tuesday afternoon and evening. Increasing
moisture and somewhat unstable conditions will allow for some
showers and thunderstorms with the best chance in the east Tuesday
evening. Storm Prediction Center has marginal risk for severe weather in the far
southeast corner (southern prairie and southern Wibaux counties)
on Tuesday. The early afternoon timing of the cold front could
limit severe potential across that area. Northwest winds behind the
front may be strong enough Tuesday afternoon and evening for a
lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake.

The upper trough moves to the east Tuesday night and high pressure
will bring dry and cooler weather on Wednesday with temperatures
near normal.

The next upper trough moves inland from the Pacific on Wednesday
and into western Montana on Thursday. A cold front is expected to
move through the forecast area on Thursday with limited moisture.
The moisture in the SW flow ahead of the trough arrives Thursday
night while the trough moves through on Friday. Expect cool
weather with a good chance of showers starting Thursday night and
continuing on Friday. Chances for showers could linger through
Saturday as the models differ on how long to keep the trough in
the area.

The beginning of next week looks dry with an upper ridge on
Sunday. Forrester



Flight cat: VFR.

Discussion: while high pressure moves to the east today,
the atmosphere will remain dry with only a few high clouds. There
will be an increase in high and mid level clouds tonight as low
pressure develops over central Montana. Not expecting any impacts
to taf sites with this taf cycle.

Wind: from the east-southeast around 10 knots at kggw, diminishing
to around 5 knots tonight. A cold front will bring strong and
gusty northwest winds by Tuesday afternoon - up to 35 mph gusts at times.



Glasgow watches/warnings/advisories...none.

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