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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
306 PM CDT sun Sep 22 2019

Long term...
/Monday night through Sunday/

No considerable changes to the long term forecast through the
upcoming week as the Summer like pattern will continue, keeping
things hot and mostly dry. The operational guidance advertises
high temperatures in the mid 90s (~10 degrees above normal)
through mid week, which seems reasonable given the positive height
anomalies associated with the strong ridge over the southeastern

On Monday night, the remnants of a weak frontal boundary will be
draped across southern Oklahoma and will be accompanied by a pool
of moisture which will likely aid in at least some scattered
showers and thunderstorms. This activity should generally be
confined to the Red River counties. On Tuesday a weak upper trough
will advance north along the Texas coast and should result in
modest height falls across North Texas through the evening. We'll
have the highest pops of the week on Tuesday (30-50%) mainly along
and north of I-20 to the Red River. Also during this time, a large
upper trough will become cut off over the Desert Southwest. It is
becoming increasingly likely that this feature will kick out over
the Central Plains sometime on Friday, farther north than
previously expected. This would keep most of the strong forcing
well removed from our area. Nonetheless, given the humid airmass
and possibility of some weak ascent, we'll keep some low pops in
areawide Wednesday through Friday. Rain chances will generally be
less than 20%.

There doesn't appear to be much hope on the horizon for any
appreciable rainfall even beyond next weekend. There may be some
low rain chances late Friday night and Saturday mainly across the
north given the broad trough over the western U.S. And continued
humid airmass, but most of the ensemble guidance shows stronger
ridging building back over North Texas beyond next weekend.



Short term... /issued 1249 PM CDT sun Sep 22 2019/
/through Monday/

The main forecast concern in the short-term continues to be the
potential for showers and thunderstorms in our northwestern
counties. Morning surface analysis shows a cold front stretched
across northwest Oklahoma and into the Texas Panhandle. GOES-16
water vapor channel imagery shows a steady stream of Pacific
moisture flowing from southwest to northeast along the east side
of a mid-tropospheric trough. The interaction of this moisture
with the cold front should allow for convection to develop this
afternoon well to our west and northwest. Upper-level flow should
help steer this convection towards our northwestern counties.

Chance pops (30-50%) are included this evening northwest of a
Mineral Wells to Sherman line. This convection may move farther
east through the overnight, with chance pops included late
tonight (i.E. Between midnight and sunrise) generally along and
north of U.S. Highway 380. Some of this convection may linger on
through the day Monday as well, with the highest chances (still
only 30-40%) coming to the metroplex on Monday morning. Additional
re-development to the northwest of dfw is likely Monday afternoon
as well.

The severe weather threat looks low given that most convection
should be late this evening and overnight when the atmosphere is
cooler. Besides cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, perhaps the
one thing to watch will be rain rates. The steady stream of
Pacific moisture has kept precipitable water values high, and with
a deep warm cloud layer, showers and thunderstorms will be
capable of heavy rainfall rates. The good news is that storms
should move along at a decent pace, but if any training of
convection were to become established, a quick one to two inches
of rain isn't out of the question for localized pockets. Still,
area-averaged rainfall totals north of I-20 should remain
generally less than one-half inch (with many areas likely missing
out on rainfall altogether).

Lastly, increased cloud cover and rainfall may keep temperatures
down a bit on Monday. Right now, forecast highs are in the low 90s
for most locations, since there is some uncertainty with respect
to shower/thunderstorm coverage. Should we see more coverage than
currently forecast, monday's highs will almost certainly need to
be bumped down. For instance, the NAM which is more aggressive
with precipitation coverage, shows highs in the 80s for dfw
tomorrow. Either way though, it will hardly feel like late



Aviation... /issued 1219 PM CDT sun Sep 22 2019/
/18z tafs/

Concerns -- MVFR stratus potential in metroplex (more likely at
kact). Convective chances in North Texas.

Similar to past few days...morning MVFR stratus has given way to
VFR at all taf sites. Breezy s'ly winds continue with sustained
winds 12-16 knots with gusts to over 20 knots. To the north and
northwest of the d10 tracon...some isolated to scattered ts may
develop this afternoon and evening near a weak front. Coverage
should remain sparse enough...but some impacts to the Bowie
arrival gate are not out of the question. Some of this convection
could make its way towards the fringes of the d10 tracon area late
tonight and towards daybreak Monday...but confidence is too low to
mention in tafs.

Regarding overnight/early morning cigs...low-level flow will be a
bit weaker and slightly more veered tonight. This should limit the
Gulf stratus intrusion to a degree...but MVFR still appear likely
at kact. Confidence in MVFR is lower for dfw...but moisture may be
just high enough to allow some brief MVFR towards the east side of
the metroplex at kdal.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 77 91 76 93 74 / 20 30 10 20 10
Waco 77 93 73 95 72 / 0 10 5 10 5
Paris 74 85 71 87 71 / 40 50 30 40 10
Denton 75 89 74 91 73 / 30 40 20 30 20
McKinney 76 89 74 90 73 / 30 40 20 30 10
Dallas 77 91 76 93 75 / 10 30 10 20 10
Terrell 76 91 74 93 73 / 5 30 10 20 5
Corsicana 77 92 73 91 71 / 0 10 5 10 5
Temple 75 93 73 93 71 / 0 10 5 10 5
Mineral Wells 74 89 71 91 71 / 30 40 20 30 20


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...

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