Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1134 PM CDT sun Sep 15 2019
No significant aviation concerns are expected through Monday with
a continued light easterly wind and scattered afternoon cumulus.
While we can't totally rule out a very isolated shower through
Monday evening somewhere in north/central TX, coverage is expected
to be too low to mention in any taf.
Short term... /issued 1232 PM CDT sun Sep 15 2019/
/rest of today through Monday/
The upper level ridge will continue to dominate the region,
suppressing rain chances today and tonight. A disturbance
continues to slowly wander in the western Gulf of Mexico, but may
creep closer to the south Texas coast on Monday.
For this afternoon, I increased afternoon highs a few degrees
across mainly the southeastern portions of the region. Dfw and
Waco will both make a run at their daily record high temperatures
for today. At both sites, the daily record is 100 degrees today.
Otherwise, a few cumulus clouds may present themselves and rain-
free conditions will prevail. Overnight lows will remain very
similar to the past few mornings with values largely in the upper
60s to mid 70s; but expect upper 70s in the dfw urbanized areas.
On Monday, another hot day is expected with highs in the mid 90s
to around 100 degrees. Record highs for Monday are 102 degrees for
dfw and 101 degrees for Waco. Waco may come close to its daily
record but dfw may fall just shy. A few showers or storms may move
into the southern portions of central Texas in the late afternoon
Long term... /issued 243 PM CDT sun Sep 15 2019/
/Monday night through next weekend/
Above normal warmth is expected through the early week.
Fortunately around and after mid-week, there are some chances for
rain/storms and thus cooler---but near normal---conditions. While
the forecast calls for the best rain chances towards mid-week,
not all locations will see rain/storms.
Monday night into Tuesday should feature largely tranquil
conditions across most of the area as a low across the Gulf of
Mexico moves westward towards the Corpus Christi area. There is a
weak reflection of this feature at low-levels and the wind field
attains a slightly more east-northeasterly component along the
Upper Texas coast during this time. What this means is that low
level moisture trajectories may not be overly favorable for
measurable rainfall through at least the first half of the day on
Tuesday. As such, i'll maintain a mostly dry forecast for a large
chunk of north and central Texas through that time period. The
exception to this will be across parts of the Brazos Valley,
where a few showers or thunderstorms may drift northward away from
the south Texas upper low. There will be a risk for a gusty wind
threat associated with thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon across
central Texas given the well mixed planetary boundary layer and hot conditions (air
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s).
The mid-week time frame (wednesday and thursday) will feature the
best rain chances, though there is still some spread among the
model guidance. The latest GFS and most of its ensembles continue
to hint at the idea that the low will remain confined to south
Texas with a few vestiges of this feature meandering northward
toward central Texas. The Canadian and most consistently the
ECMWF, indicate that the south Texas low will become enveloped
into the broad southwest flow aloft and lift northward into the
north and central Texas. I'll hedge towards the latter solutions
as they are in step with the previous forecast and have exhibited
slightly greater run-to- run consistency. This necessitates higher
pops down across central Texas and across the Brazos Valley on
Wednesday and Thursday. However, it should be noted that there is
1) still some uncertainty this far out and 2), not all locations
are guaranteed rainfall. What does appear most probable is that a
good part of the area will see cooler conditions as widespread
mid/upper level cloudiness will result in partly sunny to cloudy
skies. I've trended highs down a little lower from the previous
forecast on Wednesday (highs in the low to mid 90s) and Thursday
(highs in the mid 80s to low 90s).
Near normal highs are possible on Friday...especially across the
western third of the area (big country region) where lift and
associated moisture with our northward moving low remain.
Confidence in exact locations that will see rain are a little
uncertain, so pops remain broad-brushed for now (highest
rain/storm chances west of I-35). Next weekend, confidence is
modestly high in mainly dry conditions as the upper ridge attempts
to re-insert itself back into the weather picture. The flow
across the High Plains does become a bit more meridional and so
there's a chance that this may stunt the ridge's expansion
northward. If so, it's possible that we may see temperatures
remain closer to or possibly below normal.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 78 99 76 97 76 / 5 0 0 5 5
Waco 72 100 74 96 73 / 5 5 5 20 5
Paris 72 96 73 97 73 / 5 0 0 0 0
Denton 71 98 74 97 74 / 5 0 0 5 0
McKinney 73 98 74 97 74 / 5 0 0 5 0
Dallas 80 100 77 98 76 / 5 0 0 5 5
Terrell 74 100 75 97 74 / 5 0 0 5 5
Corsicana 72 98 74 98 73 / 5 5 5 10 5
Temple 72 98 73 95 73 / 5 5 5 20 10
Mineral Wells 70 96 71 96 71 / 5 0 0 5 0