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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
334 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Short term...
/through Friday/

A reinforcing cold front has returned north winds to the region
today, ushering in somewhat drier air. The low-level cold
advection has been negligible, and where sunshine has prevailed
this afternoon, temperatures have exceeded yesterday's highs.
However, across portions of central and East Texas, where clouds
and rain have lingered, readings have remained in the 40s. The
gradually drying boundary layer is bringing an end to the
rainfall there, and the skies will steadily clear this evening

A broad postfrontal surface high will settle into north and
central Texas tonight, diminishing wind speeds. As a result,
temperatures will plunge into the 30s this evening, but with
inconsequential wind chill. The dry air and clear skies should
assure a widespread freeze Friday morning, except for the inner
urban portions of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex. However, a
steady northerly breeze above the boundary layer may disrupt the
radiational cooling just enough to prevent many locations from
dipping into the 20s.

Abundant sunshine, dry air, and light winds will help temperatures
rebound on Friday. But with a chilly start to the day, the low sun
angle and diminishing daylight will only allow for so much of a
climb. Friday afternoon's high temperatures will be much more
uniform than previous days', generally in the mid to upper 50s.
Tepid south winds will return to western portions of North Texas,
where the Mercury may top 60f.



Long term...
/Friday night through Thursday/

An active upper pattern will remain in place across the Continental U.S. Into
early next week sending periodic fronts through the region, but
offering only minimal rain chances. Friday night will be another
cold night with lows in the lower 30s areawide with surface high
pressure settled in across the region. This will gradually shift
eastward on Saturday as we become positioned beneath brief
shortwave ridging. Southerly winds and mostly sunny skies will
allow temps to climb back into the low to mid 60s by Saturday

On Sunday, a strong shortwave trough will swing through the
central U.S. Despite strong southerly low level flow ahead of this
feature, moisture return will be limited after getting scoured out
behind this latest front. Strong forcing for ascent will
overspread the region during the day on Sunday, but latest
guidance continues to suggest that total column moisture will be
too limited for any meaningful rainfall. We'll mention a low
chance for some sprinkles as an increase in mid level cloud cover
and the strong lift could squeeze out a few raindrops, but overall
it should be a dry day. A weak Pacific front will slide through
North Texas behind this shortwave, but shouldn't result in any
significant temperature drop.

Another large trough is expected to dig into the West Coast toward
the end of the week. This system may move into northwest Mexico
before ejecting eastward across the plains. Moisture return looks
like it will be better ahead of this system and we'll have some
low rain chances in for the end of next week. Otherwise, the week
looks fairly uneventful with temperatures gradually warming back
into the 70s through the middle of the week.



Aviation... /issued 1147 am CST Thu Nov 14 2019/
/18z tafs/

Concerns -- lingering low cigs improving through the day.

VFR conditions to continue through the 18z taf cycle at metroplex
sites, with MVFR conditions at kact improving to VFR, as cigs lift
by early to mid afternoon. Sky clear conditions will be observed areawide
by this evening, continuing through the end of the pd. Otherwise,
nly winds around 10 kts with a few gusts to near 20 kts are fcst
through the daylight hours, with wind speeds diminishing to around 5
kts after sunset. /Shv/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 33 58 36 60 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 30 58 34 61 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 32 56 31 57 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton 29 57 34 60 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 30 57 34 59 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 33 58 36 60 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 31 57 34 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 32 57 34 59 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple 31 58 33 61 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 30 57 32 61 39 / 0 0 0 0 0


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...

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