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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
525 am CST Mon Nov 18 2019

/12z tafs/


VFR is expected to persist through the next 30 hours across north
and central Texas. Winds have become light for much of the
region, with a gradual backing expected through the rest of the
morning. A few high clouds will continue to traverse the North
Texas sky this morning, but no impacts are expected at any of the
terminals. Southwesterly winds will dominate this afternoon,
generally staying around 5-8 kts. Overnight, skies are expected to
be clear with winds likely dropping below 5 kts as they gain a
more westerly component.



Short term... /issued 212 am CST Mon Nov 18 2019/
/today and tonight/

The northerly winds that were in place yesterday afternoon were
short lived as winds have started to swing around from the
northwest, and eventually from the southwest this afternoon. It is
these southwesterly downsloping winds that will allow for
temperature to climb into the 70s today. Given guidance tends to
underdo the warming effects of the downsloping terrain, have sided
with the warmer guidance.

A weak shortwave moving along the northwesterly flow aloft will
allow for some high clouds through much the morning, especially
north of I-20. These high clouds should continue moving to the
southeast and exit the region by the afternoon.

Lows tonight will be in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees as winds
become light out of the southwest.



Long term... /issued 212 am CST Mon Nov 18 2019/
/Tuesday Onward/

The theme of the forecast for the upcoming week remains largely
unchanged with this forecast package. Monday and Tuesday look to
be fairly quiet in terms of weather, with things becoming more
active for the back half of the week. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms as well as locally heavy rainfall may be possible on

The main driver of the active weather later in the week will be a
strong upper-level trough that is forecast to dig into the western
United States by mid-week. The timing differences that we have
been seeing between the GFS and European model (ecmwf) appear to be closing a bit,
though the European model (ecmwf) does remain a bit slower than the GFS (with the
GFS known to have a fast bias, and the European model (ecmwf) known to have a
slow, albeit smaller bias). Ahead of the main longwave trough, a
shortwave trough will propagate across the Southern Plains,
resulting in surface cyclogenesis across the Central Plains. This
will in turn bring gusty southerly winds to our forecast area.
While this would normally lead to some concerns for an elevated
fire danger, humidity will be on the increase, tempering this

As lift associated with the shortwave trough increases, isolated
to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
develop across West Texas, and track northeast across western
North Texas and into Oklahoma. Our highest pops on Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night will be along the Red River, north
and northwest of the Dallas/Fort Worth metropolitan area.

On Thursday, the surface low will lift north into the Midwest,
pushing a cold front into North Texas. More widespread shower and
thunderstorm development can be expected Thursday, with likely
pops now indicated across much of our County Warning Area during
this timeframe. The deterministic GFS also shows cape values of
around 500 j/kg combined with strong (60+ knot) deep-layer wind
shear. Instability is probably a little on the low side for
significant severe weather, but with this strong of shear and
low-level forcing, a few strong thunderstorms capable of gusty
winds and small hail may not be out of the question. Additionally,
the fact that these showers and thunderstorms will be widespread
and last much of the day, widespread rainfall accumulations of
0.50 to 1.50 inches look likely. The highest rainfall totals will
be in our northeastern counties, with rainfall accumulations
decreasing the farther southwest one GOES. Locally higher amounts
in excess of three inches will be possible in some locations,
which could lead to localized flooding of flood-prone areas.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue behind the front on
Thursday night and into Friday, but coverage and intensity should
decrease through the day Friday. The majority of the showers and
thunderstorms should end by Friday evening, but some lighter rain
may still linger, especially east of Interstate 35. By and large
though, Friday evening should be characterized by cool and cloudy
conditions, with just isolated to scattered light rain showers.

The weekend and Monday look cool but dry, with rain and
thunderstorm chances looking to return by next Tuesday as another
upper-level trough swings into the western United States.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 72 48 74 56 73 / 0 0 0 0 40
Waco 71 43 76 56 75 / 0 0 0 0 30
Paris 66 45 71 51 71 / 0 0 0 0 30
Denton 71 44 74 54 72 / 0 0 0 0 50
McKinney 69 44 74 54 72 / 0 0 0 0 40
Dallas 70 48 75 56 74 / 0 0 0 0 40
Terrell 70 46 75 54 74 / 0 0 0 0 30
Corsicana 70 45 74 54 74 / 0 0 0 0 30
Temple 72 44 75 56 74 / 0 0 0 0 20
Mineral Wells 73 43 74 54 72 / 0 0 0 0 40


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...

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