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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
245 am CST Fri Nov 15 2019



Short term...
/today and tonight/

Patchy morning fog will remain across the extreme southern zones
early this morning due to a light winds and some lingering
shallow moisture. Although a few locations between Cameron and
Hearne will continue to see some periods of dense fog through the
pre-dawn hours, overall visibility should slowly improve as
slightly drier air works in from the north. The good news is that
as the drier air moves in and temperatures fall to freezing or
slightly below, the fog will lift. Therefore, freezing fog should
not be a major issue with regards to travel impacts. We will
continue to monitor the fog and falling temperatures however,
since there could be a brief period of some light icing in a few
locations.

An upper ridge will build in from the west through tonight while
surface high pressure translates to the east, resulting in a
mostly clear sky, slightly warmer temperatures, and slowly veering
boundary layer winds. Afternoon highs will range from the mid 50s
to around 60 with lows in the lower and middle 30s.

79

&&

Long term...
/Saturday Onward/

The weekend ahead looks fairly quiet and pleasant as a weak
upper-level ridge builds over the south-central United States.
Abundant sunshine and modest warm air advection should allow
temperatures to rise into the 60s during the day, with overnight
lows falling into the 40s. Overall, it should be an excellent
weekend for outdoor activities like sports, hiking, or camping.
Late Sunday, an upper-level trough will pass through the Great
Plains, but the strongest cyclonic vorticity advection associated
with it will remain well to our north. While lift will be somewhat
enhanced (perhaps leading to some increased cloud cover), low-
level moisture will be quite limited. In fact, neither the GFS nor
the European model (ecmwf) generate any quantitative precipitation forecast. Still, strong ascent can sometimes
"squeeze out" whatever little moisture exists, thus will carry a
mention of sprinkles in the grids for Sunday (but regardless, not
expecting any appreciable impacts).

Upper-level ridging will build back in for the early half of next
week, leading to warm and dry conditions. Highs should reach into
the 70s for Monday through Wednesday, with overnight lows dropping
into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

As we head into the second half of the week, an unsettled weather
pattern looks to return. On Wednesday, a weak shortwave trough
will move out of Mexico and across Texas. Since moisture will have
had a few days to recover, we may actually see some rain chances
out west on Wednesday, closer to the axis of the shortwave trough.
Weak instability will also exist, so a few thunderstorms are not
out of the question either. By Thursday, a longwave trough moving
onto the West Coast is expected to cut off into a closed upper-
level low, and meander eastward into the southern rockies. This
solution is supported by both the GFS and ECMWF, as well as the
majority of their respective ensemble members (a surprising amount
of agreement on the synoptic pattern for several days out!).
since we are reaching the day 7+ timeframe, it's probably a little
early to get too far out into the weeds, but it is probably safe
to say we will likely see increasing rain chances, and modestly
cooler temperatures. There has been some disagreement from model
run to model run with regards to how much rain as well as the
timing of various bouts of precipitation. Because of this, pops
have been kept in the slight chance to chance categories, but
should model guidance continue to show this unsettled pattern,
pops will almost certainly need to be increased in later
forecasts.

37

&&



Aviation... /issued 1140 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019/
/06z tafs/

VFR conditions will continue through the entire taf cycle as a dry
airmass will keep skies clear areawide. Patchy fog has developed
across portions of central Texas, but it is not expected to impact
kact. The northerly winds will veer overnight, and by tomorrow
afternoon, southerly winds are expected areawide.

Hernandez

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 58 36 60 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 10
Waco 58 34 61 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 10
Paris 56 32 57 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 5
Denton 57 35 59 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 10
McKinney 57 35 59 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dallas 58 36 61 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 10
Terrell 58 33 60 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 10
Corsicana 57 34 59 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 10
Temple 58 33 61 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 10
Mineral Wells 57 32 62 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 5

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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