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fxus63 kfsd 161957 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls South Dakota
257 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Southerly flow will continue to gradually increase overnight into
Thursday as a ridge of high pressure aloft builds onto the plains.
This southerly breeze and occasional high cloud cover will keep
temperatures from dropping off too far as the lighter winds turn to
the south. Lows should range from 30 to 35 east of Interstate 29 to
35 to 40 along and west. South to southeast winds will be on the
gusty side Thursday afternoon, but most gusts should be less than 30
mph. The low level thermal field will warm nicely, but with a slight
southeast component to the wind some sights in northwest Iowa and
southwest Minnesota will remain on the cooler side. Highs from the lower
60s in those areas to the lower 70s in south central South Dakota.
Precipitation is not expected during this time.

Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Mild and dry conditions will continue Friday into Saturday as an
initial upper level wave passes through the area. As this wave
approaches Thursday night southerly flow will be very strong so will
lean towards the warm side of guidance. Right now not anticipating
any precipitation as there is little to no moisture to work with.
Should see decent mixing each day so anticipate both days to be at
or above normal for high temperatures and will also lean towards the
warm side of guidance.

The main upper level low pressure will begin to spread onto the
plains late Saturday night which may allow a few showers to creep
into central South Dakota. Will keep chances low but increase through the day
Sunday into Sunday night. Models continue to trend slightly
southward and Sunday continues to be a transitional day. Potential
to be mild and humid ahead of the incoming upper level wave but that
will all come down to some subtle timing differences. One detail
that continues is that the low levels remain warm enough to support
rain with no chances for snow. This system shows the potential to be
a decent rainmaker and right now the better chances appear to be
north of the area.

Depending upon timing, Monday may be very windy with continued windy
conditions Tuesday into Wednesday. With the system expected to lift
northeast on Monday temperatures will be cooler behind the system
but not as cold as this past week. Highs generally 45 to 55 Monday
through Wednesday. The models continue to show a wave diving
southeast on the backside of the large scale low which would bring
colder conditions to end the week, but for now models differ on
timing enough to not know if this colder air will come in on
Wednesday or Thursday.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

MVFR ceilings will lift a bit and shift northeast through the
day. By late afternoon VFR conditions are expected the remainder
of the period.


Fsd watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


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