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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls South Dakota
525 am CST Wed Dec 11 2019

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 303 am CST Wed Dec 11 2019

Light snow continues to move away this morning, with accumulations
from a dusting to and inch in many areas. Stratus is also eroding
this morning, which will allow temperatures to drop quickly,
especially north of Highway 14. Temperatures are likely to fall
below zero in some locations.

Today: high pressure moving through the western Great Lakes will
leave a light easterly wind in place through the first half of the
day. Anticipating a rather chilly day, with highs struggling to
reach double digits. Warm advection in the mid-lvls begins by the
middle of the day, and we should begin to see an increase in mid-
lvl clouds in the afternoon. Southeast winds will also increase
slightly by the late afternoon, which given the fluffy nature of
the fresh snow, could lead to minor blowing snow issues.

Tonight: a progressive and weak shortwave trough moves into the
northern plains tonight. Warm advection and veering boundary layer
wind profiles suggest rising temperatures overnight. An area of low
pressure moves through after midnight. While moisture again looks
limited, the strongest synoptic lift focuses to the north and
northeast overnight. We'll need to monitor for at least a low end
potential for flurries or perhaps light freezing drizzle into
Thursday morning. Chances remain rather low.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 303 am CST Wed Dec 11 2019

Thursday: a fairly quiet, but potentially cloudy day may arrive for
Thursday behind the departing wave. Temperatures again won't climb
very far, likely remaining in the teens to 20s in most areas.

Thursday night-friday: another very subtle and moisture starved
shortwave moves through the area Thursday night into Friday. Again,
pops will remain low and any precipitation that falls should be
minimal impact. A stronger surge of cold air begins to drop south
into the region late on Friday. Temperatures in the afternoon will
likely warm into the 30s in some areas, with 40s near the MO
river. Increasing clouds and broad but weak lift could leave a
lingering risk for very light precipitation into the nighttime

Saturday-sunday: gusty northwest winds arrive for Friday night
bringing another surge of cold Canadian air southward.
Temperatures for the weekend remain well below normal, with highs
in the single digits to teens and lows below zero in some areas.
We'll keep an eye on weak warm advection on Sunday which could
produce a low end risk for snow, especially over central and
western South Dakota.

Monday-tuesday: yet another progressive shortwave moves through the
region to start next week. These systems remain rather moisture
starved, so not anticipating any large scale precipitation
chances. However, temperatures could warm slightly early next
week, but likely won't reach climatological normals in most areas.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 524 am CST Wed Dec 11 2019

VFR conditions are expected through the day. Winds are expected to
remain light this morning, turning to the southeast later this
evening and overnight. Mid-lvl clouds increase after dark, with
potential for stratus after midnight.


Fsd watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.

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