Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kfgz 261042
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
342 am MST Wed Jun 26 2019
Synopsis...expect mainly dry weather with near average
temperatures through the week. Wind speeds will increase today
through Friday, and critical fire weather conditions are expected
for portions of north central and northeastern Arizona each day.
A chance for afternoon thunderstorms will return to eastern
Arizona beginning Friday.
Discussion...strong low pressure off the coast of Oregon will
keep a dry southwesterly flow over Arizona through the end of the
week. Scattered high level clouds continue to stream across the
state this morning, and will gradually decrease through the day.
The Pacific northwest low makes little movement over the coming
days which will keep Arizona in this dry, warm and breezy pattern
through Friday. A red flag warning has been issued today for
critical fire weather conditions across a portion of north-central
and northeastern Arizona. Similar areas will see near critical
fire weather on Thursday, and perhaps Friday as well.
Consensus among operational model runs and ensemble means this
morning shows a slightly better increase in moisture across the
area this weekend, particularly Saturday and Sunday. Much of this
may come in the form of cloud cover which will inhibit
thunderstorm chances. It appears rain and thunderstorms chances
will still favor eastern Arizona , but stay tuned to the forecast
as things can change quickly this time of year. Temperatures will
warm close to or slightly above average over the weekend and
remain so into next week.
The chance for afternoon thunderstorms will continue for the
mountainous regions along the New Mexico border early next week.
There continues to be spread in how the models resolve the pattern
next week, but at this point the consensus points toward a drier
southwest flow developing as a persistent trough remains over the
Aviation...for the 12z package...expect VFR conditions through this
forecast period. Sfc winds becmg sw10-20g30kts from 17z-01z. Highly
localized visibility restrictions possible due to area fires.
Aviation discussion not updated for taf amendments.
Fire weather...dry, warm and breezy conditions will persist
today and Thursday. A red flag warning has been issued for portions
of central and eastern Arizona this afternoon. Critical fire weather
conditions are likley in roughly the same areas again on Thursday
Friday through Sunday...dry and warm weather, with continued gusty
southwest winds, will continue on Friday. This will produce some
areas of critical fire weather conditions on Friday afternoon. An
increase in moisture, along with a slight downturn in southwesterly
wind speeds, will diminish the chance of reaching these thresholds
Saturday and Sunday. However, there will be a threat of high-based
convection across the eastern and some central zones by the
Fgz watches/warnings/advisories...red flag warning from 1 PM this
afternoon to 6 PM MST this evening for azz112-113-116-140.