Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kfgz 172142
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
242 PM MST Tue Sep 17 2019
Synopsis...breezy conditions will continue on Wednesday before
strong southwest winds on Thursday. Thunderstorm chances will
be confined mostly to the east on Wednesday and Thursday. Dry
conditions and near normal temperatures are forecast Friday
through the weekend before unsettled weather returns next week.
Discussion...isolated showers and thunderstorms continue across
portions of southern Coconino County and central Navajo County.
The trend is for activity to be decreasing in the next couple of
hours ending by the early evening. Winds have been gusty in a few
spots today with gusts up to 40 mph near the Grand Canyon and
several gusts 30-35 mph elsewhere.
Expect southwest winds to be breezy again on Wednesday before
stronger southwest winds begin Thursday as a trough digs in across
the southwest increasing gradients. Gusts up to 40 mph will be
possible in a few areas with the strongest winds mainly across the
high terrain of Coconino County and near Black Mesa. Conditions
will remain mostly dry with slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms remaining in the far eastern portion of the area
Friday into the weekend, the trough will shift off to the east
leaving behind seasonable temperatures and dry conditions across
northern Arizona. Expect some breezy southwest winds again on
Friday afternoon before winds become lighter into the weekend.
After a mostly quiet weekend, are more active pattern will be
possible into next week. Long range models have come into better
agreement on a closed low developing near the Southern California
coast/Great Basin region. Disagreement still lies in where exactly
to track this feature which still causes some uncertainty on the
forecast next week. For now, it appears the beginning of the week
will be unsettled with precipitation chances returning. Stay
Aviation...for the 00z package...expect VFR conditions through the
period, with few-sct clouds with bases 4-7kft agl. Isold shra/-tsra
through around 01z along/east of kflg-kov7, with only a slight
chance again Wednesday in the White Mountains. Sfc winds sw15-25kts
through 01z today then again after 18z Wednesday. Aviation
discussion not updated for taf amendments.
Fire weather...a drying trend will continue through Thursday, with
only isolated shower and storm coverage in far eastern Arizona.
Gusty southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph can be expected each day, with
some gusts over 40 mph Thursday from Flagstaff northward. Near
critical fire weather conditions Thursday over the lower elevations
of northern Coconino County.
Friday through Sunday...drying will continue through this period,
with breezy southwest winds especially on Friday. Temperatures will
be near normal.