Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kfgz 201029
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
329 am MST Thu Jun 20 2019
Synopsis...an approaching system will bring increased southwest
winds through Saturday with low humidities creating periods of
near critical fire weather conditons. Temperatures will cool into
the weekend with a chance of showers along the Utah border
southwesterly winds will be on the increase over the next few
days as developing low pressure pushes across the Great Basin. We
are including chances for showers near the Utah border as this
system moves across the northern portion of the Arizona Saturday.
Notably cooler temps are anticipated this weekend as well.
A warming trend will return next week under strengthening high
Aviation...for the 12z package...primarily VFR conditions for the
next 24 hours, areas of smoke may bring MVFR visbys at times.
Southwest winds to 10 kts through 16z then increase to 15-25 kts
with gusts 30-35 kts. Winds decrease to 5-15kts aft 02z Fri.
Aviation discussion not updated for taf amendments.
Fire weather...southwest winds to increase today and Friday
ahead of an approaching trough. A couple hours of near critical
fire weather conditions are possible late this afternoon. Breezy
southwest winds persist overnight. On Friday, expect more
widespread and long lasting critical fire weather condtions.
Saturday through Monday...on Saturday, a weak cold front to move
into northern Arizona. Expect breezy southwest winds to continue,
and isolated high based thunderstorms are possible along the Utah
border. Temperatures will cool to around 5 degrees below normal
Saturday and Sunday.
Fgz watches/warnings/advisories...Fire Weather Watch from Friday
morning through Friday afternoon for azz109>114-139-140.