Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kfgz 180352
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
855 PM MST Mon Jun 17 2019
Synopsis...any remaining showers and thunderstorms near the Utah
border will end by midnight MST. On Tuesday, only isolated storms
are possible near the Utah border, with dry and warm conditions on
Wednesday. Expect windier and dry weather on Thursday and Friday.
Near critical fire weather conditions will develop later this week.
Discussion...convection slowly dying out and moving to the north
and northeast this evening. The low responsible for the convection
is weakening and moving southwest away from the area, allowing for
more stable and drier air to move in Tuesday and Wednesday. This
will bring a warming trend and will quickly limit daytime convection
to the northern zones Tuesday, with nearly nothing by Wednesday.
The warming trend will be short-lived, as more low pressure develops
over the Great Basin later this week and into the weekend. This will
bring a dry and windy pattern to the area, with the seasons first
critical fire weather conditions likely arriving.
Current forecast has these trends well covered, no updates needed
Aviation...for the 06z package...look for VFR conditions over the
next 24 hours. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon north of a kflg-krqe line. Generally light winds, except
near any storms where wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible.
Aviation discussion not updated for taf amendments.
Fire weather...chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
limited to near the Utah state border on Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Otherwise, light west to southwest afternoon breezes and
near-normal temperatures will continue through Wednesday.
Thursday through Saturday...relative humidity values will remain
low. West to southwest wind speeds will begin to increase Thursday
and be strongest on Friday. Near-critical fire weather conditions
are possible Thursday and Friday before a slight cooling trend