Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kfgz 201131
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
431 am MST sun Oct 20 2019
Synopsis...a dry cold front will push through the area today,
with high temperatures falling 10 to 15 degrees in northeast
Arizona. A warming trend will occur Monday through Wednesday.
Another dry cold front will likely cool temperatures again
Thursday and Friday.
Discussion...a dry cold front moving north to south through the
area this morning bringing cool air and breezy northwest winds
this afternoon. Surface observations indicate it has moved into
northern Arizona and extends from about the Grand Canyon to The
Four Corners. High resolution models place the front about to
I-40 by late morning and pushing on to the Mogollon Rim through
the afternoon. The cool dry air and mostly clear skies behind this
front will promote radiational cooling over night making for a
cold start to the week Monday morning with temperatures 10 to 15
degrees below normal north of the Mogollon Rim and near normal
south of the rim. Northern Arizona will warm Monday through
Wednesday to 5-10 degrees above normal in Yavapai County and to
near normal in The Four Corners area under mostly clear skies.
Another trough will pass to the northeast Thursday with the
associated dry cold front cooling the area by about 10 degrees
again. No precipitation is expected with this system; only breezy
north winds. Northern Arizona will warm again going into next
Looking in the long range, change may finally be on the way.
Southwest winds will pick up Sunday ahead of a deep trough moving
down from the northwest. We may get to see the first snow in the
area early to mid week next week, but this far out, confidence is
very low. Keep your fingers crossed and stay tuned for updates
later in the week.
Aviation...for the 12z package...expect VFR conditions with
decreasing cirrus cover through the 24 hour taf forecast period. Sfc
winds switching to W-nw10-20g25kts from northwest to southeast through the morning
hours. Sfc winds becmg light aft 01z-02z tonight. Aviation
discussion not updated for taf amendments.
Fire weather...expect cooler temperatures and a wind shift to
the northwest for most areas by later this morning. Cloud cover will
diminish from northwest to southeast. Cooler temperatures persist on
Monday, with generally light northwest through northeast winds.
Surface conditions will be very dry.
Tuesday through Thursday...a warming trend develops Tuesday and
Wednesday, with light winds. Another dry cold front will bring
cooler temperatures and increased northerly winds to the region on
Thursday. Surface conditions will continue to be very dry.