Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kfgz 190410
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
910 PM MST Tue Jun 18 2019
Synopsis...expect dry and warm weather Wednesday, with windier and
continued dry weather on Thursday and Friday. Critical fire weather
conditions become possible on Thursday, likely on Friday. Look for
seasonably cool temperatures and mostly sunny skies through the
weekend and into early next week.
Discussion...drier and more stable air arrives Wednesday and
Thursday, ahead of a multi-day low pressure system set to develop in
the Great Basin. This will bring winds and critical fire weather
conditions later this week, along with cooling heading into the
weekend. No updates needed tonight.
Aviation...for the 06z package...look for VFR conditions for the
next 24 hours. Light and variable winds overnight, then becoming
southwest at 5 to 15 kts on Wednesday. Aviation discussion not
updated for taf amendments.
Fire weather...light west to southwest afternoon breezes and near
normal temperatures will continue through Wednesday. Thursday will
have near critical fire weather conditions in the lower elevations
due to low humidity and gusty afternoon winds.
Friday through Sunday...relative humidity values will remain low on
Friday, along with stronger winds ahead of a dry cold front. Fire
weather products may become necessary for Friday afternoon. Daytime
temperatures will be around 5 degrees below normal Saturday and
Sunday, behind the cold front.