Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kfgz 230305
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
805 PM MST Thu Aug 22 2019
Synopsis...generally dry and hotter than normal daytime
temperatures are expected for most of northern Arizona through
early next week.
Update...breezy southwest winds this afternoon in response to a
trough moving through the western U.S. Are now beginning to
diminish. Expect thinning high level cirrus clouds to pass over
the area tonight. Current forecast trends are handled well and no
evening forecast updates are needed.
Previous discussion /237 PM MST/...breezy southwesterly winds have
developed this afternoon with gusts mainly in the 20 to 30 mph
range. Daytime temps will drop a bit late this week, but should
remain slightly above normal for most locations. We have chances
for showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday across the
eastern Mogollon Rim, White Mountains, and northern Gila County,
but the abnormally dry conditions will persist elsewhere.
Dry and hotter weather is forecast for early next week, with the
potential for near-record high temps Monday and Tuesday.
In all, confidence remains rather low for productive monsoonal
flow during the 7-day forecast, but we are re-introducing chances
of precip by the middle of next week.
Aviation...for the 06z package...mainly clear skies with light
winds and VFR conditions will continue overnight. A few localized
areas of MVFR in smoke from nearby wildfires is possible. On
Friday, expect breezy SW winds 10-20 kts with scattered afternoon
thunderstorms primarily southeast of a ksow - ksjn line in the
white mtns. Aviation discussion not updated for taf amendments.
Fire weather...for Friday and Saturday, generally dry and cooler
with breezy afternoon winds at times. Any threat for showers and
thunderstorms will be confined to the eastern Mogollon Rim and White
Sunday through Tuesday...generally dry weather area wide with
warming daytime temperatures. Near record highs are forecast by
Tuesday. On Tuesday, the chance for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms is expected to return to the White Mountains area.