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FXUS65 KFGZ 092132

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
232 PM MST Mon Dec 9 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Showers across southern Apache and Navajo county to 
diminish this afternoon and evening, with dry weather and warming 
temperatures forecast through the remainder of the week. A weekend
disturbance may bring the return of shower chances for the far
north and east on Sunday.


.DISCUSSION...Expect the remaining showers over southern Apache
and Navajo counties to diminish through the afternoon and 
evening. The upper low has shifted across south central Arizona 
and will continue to slide off to the south and east through the 
evening and into Tuesday.

Behind this system, a ridge will set up over the area through the
midweek. Expect a slight warm up in temperatures and dry
conditions. By Wednesday, the next trough of low pressure moves
across the area bringing increased cloud cover and breezy
southwest winds Wednesday afternoon. However, this system looks to
be mostly dry with models only placing a few sprinkles along the
AZ/UT border.

Heading into the end of the week and into the weekend, another
quick moving ridge sets in before the pattern becomes more zonal
by Saturday. A series of disturbances swing by mostly to our 
north through the weekend. On Sunday, a surface cold front swings
in brining at least a slight chance for rain and snow showers 
from Grand Canyon northward and eastward along the AZ/NM border. 
This will be something to watch as a shifting further south of the
trough could yield very different results as this looks to be a 
very cold system. What can be said for now is that we are in for 
increased southwest winds this weekend and a cold start to next 
week with daily highs in the low to mid 30s. Stay tuned.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Look for VFR conditions and 
mainly clear skies over the next 24 hours. Wind generally less than 
15 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and warmer conditions will move in on Tuesday 
and continue through Wednesday. Expect poor ventilation each day due 
to near surface temperature inversions resulting in shallow vertical 

Thursday through Saturday...Look for dry conditions and seasonable 
temperatures. An approaching weather disturbance will produce 
strengthening southwesterly winds Friday through Saturday.






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