Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kfgz 121549
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
849 am MST Tue Nov 12 2019
Synopsis...northern Arizona will see dry weather with above
normal temperatures through the remainder of the week. A few high
clouds move into the area today and Wednesday, followed by cloudy
skies Thursday and Friday.
Discussion...aside from some scattered high clouds streaming over
the area from the northwest, quiet weather will continue today.
Slightly cooler temperatures will occur across northeast Arizona
this afternoon, with above normal temperatures persisting
elsewhere. Light and variable winds are expected for the remainder
of the day.
The current forecast handles all of this well and no updates are
needed this morning.
Previous discussion /330 am MST/...dry and mild weather will continue
over northern Arizona for the next several days. The Arctic front
that has been moving across the central and southern U.S. Will
bring a slight cool down across northeastern Arizona. Areas
northeast of Flagstaff to The Four Corners will see daytime
temperatures about 5 to 8 degrees cooler than yesterday.
The remainder of the week will see warming temperatures as a ridge
of high pressure over California builds eastward across the
southwestern states. Expect the warmest temperatures on
Wednesday/Thursday to reach 10 to 15 degrees above average. This
ridge is forecast to spread mid and high level clouds across the
region Thursday through early Saturday when you can expect periods
of mostly cloudy skies.
Temperatures will decrease a few degrees over the weekend when a
trough is forecast to pass to our north through Colorado.
Otherwise, the dry and mild weather pattern will continue into
There is some hope for a pattern change in the extended forecast
by mid to late next week. Operational models agree with developing
a trough over the western U.S. Sometime Wednesday or beyond, but
confidence is still very low.
Aviation...for the 18z package...VFR conditions and light surface
winds will continue for the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not
updated for taf amendments.
Fire weather...warm and dry weather will continue. Winds will be
generally light and variable through Wednesday.
Thursday through Saturday...continued warm and dry conditions, with
periods of mainly high clouds each day. Winds will remain light,
with generally poor to fair ventilation.