Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kfgz 232158
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
258 PM MST Fri Aug 23 2019
Synopsis...generally dry and hotter than normal daytime
temperatures are expected for most of northern Arizona through
early next week.
a few showers and thunderstorms developed into early this
afternoon, but have been confined to areas south of a line from
Saint Johns to Heber. Slight chances for storms are expected in
these same areas for Saturday. Locally breezy southwest winds are
also continuing this afternoon with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph, and
areas of wildfire smoke will continue near area fires. Daytime
temps will remain slightly above normal for most locations through
Dry and even hotter weather is forecast for early next week.
Models continue to show moisture returning to the Northland for
the mid-to-latter stages of next week.
Aviation...for the 00z package...VFR conditions will prevail over
the next 24 hours. Smoke from area wildfires will be present in
spots, but significant impacts are not anticipated. Southwest winds
become light again after 02z and then increase to 10-15 kts after
18z Saturday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms primarily southeast
of a ksow-ksjn line until 02z, redeveloping after 18z Saturday.
Aviation discussion not updated for taf amendments.
Fire weather...mainly dry weather and seasonable temperatures with
breezy afternoon winds this weekend. Any threat for showers and
thunderstorms will be confined to the eastern Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains area on Saturday.
Monday through Wednesday...mainly dry weather with hot daytime
temperatures, near record highs at some locations. A low chance for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will gradually return to the
White Mountains and Mogollon Rim Tuesday, and most higher terrain
areas by Wednesday.