Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus65 kfgz 241000 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
300 am MST Mon Jun 24 2019

Synopsis...expect mainly dry weather with near average
temperatures through the week. Wind speeds will increase Wednesday
through Friday afternoons with potentially critical fire weather
conditions. In the white and Chuska Mountains of eastern Arizona,
a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms returns Friday through
the weekend.


Discussion...a calm and mild weather pattern will be over Arizona
to start off the week as a zonal west to east flow presides over
the state. After a cool start this morning, daytime temperatures
will warm close to average this afternoon and remain within a few
degrees of average through the week.

The latter half of the week will feature a more amplified pattern
as low pressure moves into the Pacific northwest and a high
pressure ridge builds northward across the central U.S. An
enhanced southwesterly flow will develop over Arizona, leading to
a period of dry and breezy weather each day with near critical
fire weather conditions. Moisture over New Mexico this week may
slide just far enough west to result in a few showers or
thunderstorms near the New Mexico border region Friday through the

The aforementioned high pressure center will gradually expand
westward by early next week dominating the weather pattern across
much of the country. Expect mainly dry weather with above average
temperatures. There are no clear indications of monsoonal
moisture arriving at least through the early part of next week.


Aviation...for the 12z package...VFR conditions will prevail for
the next 24 hours. Light and variable surface winds this morning
will become west-SW 10-15kt after 18z Monday. Smoke from wildfires may
locally restrict visibility. Aviation discussion not updated for taf


Fire weather...dry conditions and low daytime relative humidity
values through Tuesday. Southwest afternoon breezes at 10 to 15 mph
are expected.

Wednesday through Friday...dry weather and near normal daytime
temperatures continue. Breezier southwest winds will develop each
afternoon, approaching critical fire weather thresholds.


Fgz watches/warnings/advisories...none.



fire weather...kd

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations