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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
908 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Update...
issued at 905 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Latest nighttime microphysics imagery indicates a streamer off of
Lake of The Woods remaining north of the international border, and
with wind/fetch expected to turn more westerly as it decreases in
velocity, threat for lake effect vcnty of Baudette has stopped.
Will remove pops for remainder of night. Latest blended
temperature solutions indicates coldest temperatures expected
between central Roseau co down to Park Rapids, along edge of
forested area where winds will be low enough to keep wind chills
in the teens below zero. Minor changes to nocturnal temp curve and
overnight lows based on nbm guidance.

&&

Short term...(this afternoon through tuesday)
issued at 124 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Surface high pressure and unseasonably cold air remain in place
over the region in the wake of a strong cold front and upper level
shortwave that is shifting eastward into the Great Lakes region.

Despite the cold temperatures, this morning's regional
soundings show adequate boundary layer moisture, low level cold
advection, and steep low level lapse rates to support the
extensive cumulus development that we're seeing overspreading the
region. Scattered flurries have already been reported out of this
cloud cover and will likely continue into the early evening before
a combination of nocturnal cooling and weakening cold
advection/increasing mid level warm advection remove support for
the convective cumulus. Little to no snow accumulation is
expected.

These mechanisms, in combination with weakening low to mid level
flow as the ridge axis shifts over the region, will bring an end
to the lake effect snow ongoing over the southeast side of Lake of
The Woods. The general consensus among guidance is that lake
effect snow will gradually diminish between 6-9 PM. However,
before then snow accumulations between one to two inches will be
possible.

Another cold morning is expected Tuesday morning as strong
radiational cooling drops temperatures into the single digits
again across the region. Winds will shift to the south by mid
morning and begin advecting warmer air into the region through the
day Tuesday. Pressure gradient winds will drive sustained winds at
15-20 mph with gusts up to 25-30 mph possible.

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 124 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

A progressive shortwave trough and attendant surface low is
expected to propagate into the region out of Canada late Tuesday
night/early Wednesday morning. This will bring scattered light
snow showers to the region for Wednesday, especially along and
south of Highway 2. Ensemble guidance suggests that this will be
another relatively low quantitative precipitation forecast event with snowfall amounts between a
dusting to one inch likely. A weak frontogenetical signal suggests
there could be some brief periods of moderate snowfall/reduced
visibility across southeast ND/western Minnesota.

Despite the weak frontal passage on Wednesday, temperatures will
begin warming through the rest of the week. A few locations
across southeast ND/western Minnesota may reach above freezing as early
as Friday afternoon with highs in the upper 30s/low 40s likely for
Saturday through Monday.

Extended guidance is in fairly good agreement in showing an upper
level shortwave moving through the region during the
weekend/early next week period. Although there is considerable
spread in timing and placement of any precipitation, the general
trend is that quantitative precipitation forecast amounts will likely be on the light side again
with the potential for areas of higher amounts (as hinted at by a
frontogenetical signal in deterministic guidance and a few
ensemble members showing higher quantitative precipitation forecast amounts). Precipitation type
will largely be driven by when precip occurs on the diurnal
temperature curve thanks to daytime highs above freezing and sub-
freezing overnight lows.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 636 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Cavoc. High pressure will shift over the area and result in winds
turning to the south tomorrow, generally west to variable by late
evening. Southerly winds tomorrow afternoon will begin gusting 20
to 30 kts.



&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

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