Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

000 
FXUS63 KFGF 240215
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
915 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

Clouds continue to clear out of northeast North Dakota, as the
last remnants shift into southeast North Dakota. Winds are also
dropping as expected, especially west of the Red River Valley.
Forecast remains on track, with no changes needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

Other than low temperatures dipping into the 20s tonight, little to 
no impactful weather is expected through Thursday. Northerly flow 
aloft has developed as the upper low over northern Ontario continues 
to drift away to the north and east with strong ridging building 
into the Rockies from the west. With weak upper level shortwave 
disturbances rotating around the upper low, cannot rule out brief 
sprinkles or flurries in portions of northwest and north central MN 
along and east of a Roseau to Park Rapids line tonight. 

Amidst northerly flow aloft, a drier airmass under surface high 
pressure builds in tonight, prompting 850 mb temperatures to fall
well into the single digits below 0C. Most models indicate cloud 
cover will clear out of all but portions of north central MN 
overnight, allowing for a pronounced temperature drop from 
nocturnal radiational cooling under clear skies and calm winds.
This will result in the coldest temperatures we have seen since
late spring. As drier air continues to filter into the region and
the region shifts out of the influence of the departing upper 
low, most areas can expect lighter winds and more sunshine on 
Thursday. This will result in slightly warmer temperatures with
highs reaching the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

From Thursday night through early Saturday, dry and warmer weather 
prevails as upper level ridging builds through the Northern and 
Central Plains and split flow develops across the CONUS. Friday and 
Saturday will be significantly warmer than earlier in the week as 
strong warm air advection develops ahead of a clipper system 
propagating east through the Canadian Prairie. Look for high 
temperatures to reach the mid 40s to mid 50s on these days. 

On Saturday, a strong cold front (associated with the aforementioned 
clipper system) will propagate through the Northern and Central 
Plains. Given the strong pressure gradient both ahead and behind the 
surface trough, expect breezy conditions on Saturday and Saturday 
night, especially with cold air advection behind the front. Some 
locations will see a chance for light rain or snow developing with 
mid level Fgen forcing behind the front on Saturday afternoon and 
evening. With the QPF expected to be light with this Saturday round 
of precipitation, the main impact will be a push of significantly 
colder air moving into the region behind the front, associated with 
a deep anomalous upper level trough digging into the central CONUS. 
As the Northern Plains remains under the influence of this anomalous 
trough, there is high confidence that colder than normal air will 
linger in the region from Sunday through at least the following 
Wednesday. This will mean daytime high temperatures in the 30s and 
lows in the teens to 20s. 

Early next week, a chance for snow develops across the region as a 
strong shortwave disturbance aloft propagates into the Northern 
Plains around the trough digging into the central CONUS. This is the 
next chance for widespread precipitation in the region. At this 
point, QPF associated with this system looks to be light, so not 
expecting any long-lasting or major impacts at this point in time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

KGFK is close to scattering out according to the latest satellite
imagery. Other TAF sites will take longer, especially KDVL and 
KFAR have the potential to do so within the next 2 to 4 hours. 
KTVF and KBJI may not get rid of the clouds until tomorrow. 
Otherwise, expect wind speeds to slowly diminish overnight, 
becoming fairly light by Thursday afternoon.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

Flooding continues for many locations across the Red River basin. 
The main flood wave with moderate flooding on the Red is moving 
through the northern valley with rises still occurring north of 
Oslo. A secondary area of concern will be associated with the 
releases from Baldhill Dam on the lower Sheyenne. Minor to Moderate 
flooding is forecast from Lisbon to Harwood as this wave makes its 
way downstream with the West Fargo Diversion set to rise above Major 
category.

The dry cool weather will continue over the next 7 days with no 
precipitation events expected to impact river levels. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations