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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1153 am CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Update...
issued at 1153 am CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Chances of freezing rain/drizzle have been removed from the
forecast for this evening. Further adjustments have been made to
the cloud cover as areas begin to clear this afternoon. Clearing
won't persist too long as lower clouds move in from the north.
Overnight low clouds will continue with gradual clearing to the
east.

Update issued at 1036 am CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Based on current observations, freezing rain chances for today
have been removed from the forecast. Skies will clear from west
to east within the next few hours. Temperatures will approach
normal for this time of year. Lower clouds will move into the area
in the late afternoon associated with an approaching cold front
from the north.

&&

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 339 am CST Thu Nov 14 2019

A warmer day is expected today as warm air advection brings warmer
air into the northern plains. This warm air advection combined
with some synoptic lift from a surface low tracking across Canada
will provide chances for some snow flurries today. The best
chances for snow today remains north of Highway 2 with little to
no accumulation expected. A layer of warmer, above freezing, air
aloft could lead to some wintry mix at times in northwest
Minnesota.

Tonight the lower levels of the atmosphere will begin to saturate
and with a warm layer aloft drizzle will be possible. In areas
where surface temperatures remain below freezing then freezing
drizzle will be possible. Although chances look to be better later
into Friday when low level saturation further increases drizzle
remains possible Thursday night. With northwesterly flow aloft and
high pressure moving in at the surface synoptic support for any
large scale rain or snow is unlikely tonight.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 339 am CST Thu Nov 14 2019

General trend in the long term will be for warmer temperatures
through the first couple days of next week and then trending cooler
as 500mb flow transitions from northwest flow to a more zonal transient
pattern. Impacts for the period will be confined to light precip
chances with weak clipper systems and precip type depending on
thermal profiles, saturated low levels and surface temps. The warm air advection
advection will bring an inversion to the region with temps still
below freezing at the surface overnight Friday into Saturday
morning. Saturated airmass with potential for freezing drizzle is
progged to exist across the Devils Lake basin area and slowly move
into northwest Minnesota. The possibility of light snow or freezing drizzle will
exist until sfc temps warm above freezing Saturday with highs
topping out in the upper 30s to low 40s. Cooler Sunday behind a
Saturday evening cold front with highs the 30s. Then another round
of warm air advection and a chance for light snow, rain or mix
before temps climb into the 40s Monday afternoon. Light snow could
linger into Tuesday and Wednesday as another weak wave moves through
in the active pattern. Highs temps Tuesday and Wednesday are
expected to be in the 30s.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1153 am CST Thu Nov 14 2019

There will be a short period of clearing in the cloud cover in the
early afternoon. Lower MVFR ceilings will approach from the north
later in the afternoon. Overnight, low clouds will persist in
central North Dakota with gradual clearing east of the Red River.
Westerly winds will switch to more northwesterly after the passage
of the cold front later this afternoon.

&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

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